Election tallies and anomalies

Well, they don’t have proof, so . . .

On November 9th? You mean AFTER any fraud may have taken place, they THEN say "Nuh-uh Violating mathematical laws is completely normal!" Yeah, excuse me for meeting that with extreme skepticism. Just because he flip-flops, doesn't mean the connection isn't worth pointing out.

And I really have no comment on that other study. That is their takeaway, but they are not the sole arbiters of truth.

That being said, Benford's law isn't the only statistical "anomaly" in Biden's "vote" counts. There are plenty of others.

But you will just post text walls and assume you're correct. I'll likely do the same.You'll look for stuff that confirms your predisposed bias, and I'll look for stuff that confirms mine. Neither of us will change our minds. It's worth looking back at to see what we can do better, but the [s]election of 2020 is long over and I'm not really too keen on getting into a long and heated debate about it, since, as I said before, neither of us will change our minds.

Okay. Let's take this from a different perspective.

Can you, in your own language, explain what Benford's Law is?

And then how it applies to election results?

Because I don't think you really understand the application of the word Law here. It seems to me, that you feel like it's the Law of Gravity or the Speed of Light. That it's an immutable thing and anything other than adherence to it is clearly fakery.

So. If you could. Explain it.

And then also any other "statistical anomalies" would be great.

https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2017/apr/excel-and-benfords-law-to-detect-fraud.html#:~:text=Briefly%20explained%2C%20Benford's%20Law%20maintains,leading%20digit%20with%20decreasing%20frequency.

I never said it's a immutable thing. I said that it's extremely unlikely that Joe Biden broke that law with only legitimate votes.

I've already read that. And I've read others.

I want you to explain it as you understand it.

That IS how I understand it, silly.

Roughly speaking, leading digits with smaller values occur more frequently than larger values. So approximately 30% of numbers start with a 1, while less than 5% start with a 9.

I will try once again to extend the olive branch of peace. But you'll probably want to keep this argument going, so...

Thank you. I appreciate that. A rational discussion is always helpful.

You also claimed that there were other statistical anomalies.

What are they?

What evidence to you have that means they are anything more than "that's interesting?"

Called it. You want to keep it going.

But as for your other question, certainly. According to the Democracy Institute,
“Something very strange happened in America’s democracy in the early hours of Wednesday November 4 [2020] and the days that followed...Trump earned the highest share of all minority votes for a Republican since 1960…Trump grew his support among black voters by 50 percent over 2016…Nationally, Joe Biden’s black support fell well below 90 percent, the level below which Democratic presidential candidates usually lose...We are told that Biden won more votes nationally than any presidential candidate in history...But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008...Yet, Biden somehow outdid Obama in total votes...Victorious presidential candidates, especially challengers, usually have down-ballot coattails; Biden did not...The Republicans held the Senate and enjoyed a ‘red wave’ in the House, where they gained a large number of seats while winning all 27 toss-up contests...Trump’s party did not lose a single state legislature and actually made gains at the state level”."

That's a pretty good showing of them, but I've got plenty more where that came from.

Yes. I am going to keep pushing this because you are spreading misinformation.

I don't believe that you are doing so maliciously. But you are doing so all the same.

Let's address the Black American vote. You claimed that "Nationally, Joe Biden’s black support fell well below 90 percent, the level below which Democratic presidential candidates usually lose"

This is incorrect. Biden actually slightly increased support among Black American Voters by 1% over Hillary to 92%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/07/06/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/

And it's not meaningful if Trump increased support among Black American by 50%. If you go from 1% to 1.5% it's an increase of 50%, yes a wild swing, but it's not going to beat out that 92%.

And the counties thing. This comes up a lot. The premise of "Biden only won X, while Other Candidate won more!!!" assumes that there is an even distribution of population. But there's not. Let's consider LA County and the entire states of North and South Dakota. LA County has a population of 10 million people. All the counties of those 2 states amount to just over 1 million people.

LA County has literally 10 times the amount of people in it than 119 counties in North and South Dakota. So, even if Biden carried 0 counties in those 2 states, but Obama carried 4, it's very very very possible that Biden still gets more votes in LA County than Obama did and wildly outperform those 4 counties that Obama won.

2020 the downballot republicans performing better than Trump. That's actually really important.

Look at vote count for the 14th Georgia Congressional district. It's rock solid red. never a doubt who will win it. The Republican house candidate received 74.7% of the vote. The Democratic contender got 25.3%.

But here's the interesting part: The Republican candidate for President got 73.4%. The Democratic candidate got 25.3%.

Trump got a full percentage point less than Marjorie Taylor Greene. 1,000s of rock solid Republicans walked into that booth and left that spot blank. They voted FOR MTG. They didn't vote for Biden.

They left that spot blank. They voted F**k No for Trump.

https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_14th_Congressional_District_election,_2020#Candidates_and_election_results

That's how a downballot state race can be successful for a Republican candiate but not Trump.

Anyway I'll try once again to peacefully agree-to-disagree. Of course, you'll accuse me of "spreading misinformation" (Buzzword count 1). And then on top of it you'll sit on your high horse and tell me "Oh, I don't believe you're doing so maliciously."

I did not see that figure on black support. But I've also seen conflicting figures. Let's just split the difference and say that his support remained unchanged (See? I'm not unreasonable).

As for counties, yes, I understand that, but logic would follow if he, as a Democrat, lost about HALF of the counties another Democrat from eight years ago won easily, something's just not right. There's also the issue of the traditional bellwether counties, of which 17 voted for Trump, compared to only one (Callam cty., WA) for Biden.

BUT the down ballot Republicans! See, that's the issue. You see it as "Down-ballot Republicans outperformed Trump because everyone hates Trump as much as I do." I see it as "There were a significant number of 'votes' that came in for Biden, with the rest of the ticket left blank." It's impossible to know unless we can see each ballot.

Once again I will try to extend the olive branch.

I understand that you feel like you're being personally attacked.

I want to assure you that I am not attacking you as an individual.

You want to believe that Biden cheated and that's why Trump lost. But what you believe is based on lies & misinformation.

That's why you feel attacked.

I am dismantling something you believe to be a fundamental truth of the world, and I'm doing it with verifiable facts.

Maybe you live in a state where there's always a conservative in every race. I live in Texas. I am a progressive. There are often races for office that don't have a Democrat running. I skip those entries on the ballot all the time.

How many times were the ballots in Georgia recounted? How many times do you have to get the same results before accepting them?

But, again, let me assure you that I'm not attacking you. I am pointing out that something you believe- Biden cheated- is not true and this can be verified with publicly available information. This can feel very threatening.

Yeah, no I don't. I just see that you are attacking.. someone.

What I believe is based on lies and misinformation? Is this the same kind of "misinformation that Hunter's laptop was, you know, the one that turned out to be legit but was swept under the rug until well into Brandon's "presidency"? Regardless, what I believe is based on quite a bit of evidence and data, as well as, of course, distrust in government.

No, you are ATTEMPTING to do that. You're not completely successful.

Okay, that's up to you. That's not actually relevant. Your personal practice does not prove or disprove the existence of large-scale voter fraud.

I don't know, but you see, I'm not saying they were COUNTING wrong (like what the dispute was over in, say, 2000), no, I'm saying they counted illegal, illegitimate, and sometimes outright fake ballots. I'm not surprised that the same government that cooperated in stealing the election would "see the same results" after a "recount." Besides, Georgia isn't the only state that happened in.

Yeah, you're still on that "high horse."

You’re thinking Pinot noir, Grigio is a dry white great for shrimp scampi.

That's because they refused to investigate any Democrat cheaters. Even if they caught them on video.