I once thought as you do. That Biden was sure to win the election IF Trump was the Republican candidate. I also kept saying ANY Republican Candidate would likely win over Biden. Making the results a forgone conclusion.
When Biden dropped out, and the publicity surrounding the first assassination attempt, I had resigned that Trump would indeed be our next President.
However, I did not consider whether any Democrat could win against Trump.
Then I thought on it some more.
While true, by votes, Trump has overshadowed both Hillary and Obama in the past, there is one distinct criticism that was true of the 2016 AND 2020 race that I did not consider for the 2024 race.
In a way, Biden NEVER actually beat Trump. While Biden did win the most votes, and the electorate unlike his Democratic predecessor; Trump actually lost to himself. People weren’t voting for Biden FOR Biden. They were voting AGAINST Trump.
We’d seen it before. Arguably what happened to Trump is the same issue that happened to Hillary in 2016. People were largely voting AGAINST Hillary. Liberals and conservatives alike.
While there has been likely voter remorse for Biden and Trump, Trump’s biggest advantages have largely diminished with each return to the election cycle.
Trump is no longer the underdog.
Trump no longer a candidate worth giving the benefit of the doubt.
Trump is no longer a wild card.
And worst of all, Trump has revealed that he is willing to illegally usurp or challenge any election he loses without a single shred of provable evidence.
And normally, I would conclude that Trump was the surefire winner of this election were it not for…
1. The Bogus Election Fraud claims
2. The bullying of governors and his Vice President that culminated to Jan 6th to overturn the election.
And 3…
3 is the biggest reason Trump will lose in 2024. Just as he did in 2020.
Trump, and Republicans in general, are favored by the rural areas of our country. Short on population but strong on electoral swinging power. With it, Republicans have every chance to win no matter how much the majority votes against them or genuinely for Democrats.
And it is THIS precise reason Trump lost in 2020.
Not because of Covid, or the Economic Crisis due to the Global Crash… not because of his impeachment or Russia.
Trump shot himself in the foot with both his Presidency and his current campaign.
3. The Tariffs.