Democrats are in a bad place right now. I really don’t see AOC if the nominee, drawing in enough Democrats votes to win against Vance. We still have two years so things can change.
As far as primary. The MAGA crowd will vote for whom ever Trump endorses. The rest of the Republicans may or may not. Again it depends who challenges Vance.
The Neocons as they are called may try to rustle back power on both teams. I don’t see it happening yet it won’t stop both parties from trying.