Establishment = both: I largely agree, but I think that became less true with Trump's election, which is why the ultra-establishmenters like that ditz Romney (I un-libertarianed for a bit and voted for Obama again over him) turned on him.
I argue the swamp is real and bigger than people know, which is why the establishment so rallied against Trump on both "sides." It is my belief though that when the truth starts coming out, it will start blowing people's socks off.
The poll stuff went still beyond those things (you recall the "likelihood of victory" stuff too), and the Dems were doing the exact same electoral-vote calculating and strategizing that the GOP was. I believe, if we're honest, the illegal immigrant variance was more than enough to cover the numerical difference - which is why Pelosi and her ilk are absolutely falling all over themselves to issue them drivers' licenses in NY, buy them over with Covid money, end the most basic voter ID restrictions, and go for the mail-in ballots (I have personal experience with Democratic fraud with those, don't get me going). Which panderings to illegals, if they had all been right-leaning Cuban refugees instead, she and the DNC would obviously have fought and not been pushing. I like to think you allow this kind of naked politically motivated contempt of law is at least mercenary, cynical, and unworthy of respect.
I agree with your assessment of those swing states, though I'm of the view that black-box questions and election integrity itself may become a pivotal question. And time will indeed tell.
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