Official definition of Medium/Moderate Confidence: Moderate confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence.
Gonna repeat the important part: but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently
Their source is a quality source. But they cannot prove what that source is telling them.
The NIC brings together all 5 Intel community reports. 4 say low confidence it's lab made. 1 says moderate confidence it's lab made.
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf
If you took a plane to 5 airplane mechanics and after they looked it over, you asked them, "hey, can I fly this across country without it losing power?"
4 of them answer, "No, I don't think that can happen" and 1 says "I don't know. Maybe."
Are you going to get in that plane?
So...
My thoughts are that it's still a conspiracy theory.
There is far more evidence and data to support that it came from wild animals to humans, and spread from the Wuhan market.
Is it iron-clad beyond a shadow of a doubt evidence? No. This far away we can't be 100% positive.
But there is more evidence of a zoological origin than a lab origin.
You can read about it here: https://www.science.org/content/article/evidence-suggests-pandemic-came-nature-not-lab-panel-says
The paper from PNAS reference (and linked) in that article specifically addresses this. There is far more scientific peer reviewed data that it's natural in origin than there is of lab origin.
Unless there's a trail of paperwork with a mustache twirling villain at the other end of it, I'm gonna go with what science says.
