I'm assuming by != , you mean ≠...
And fair enough.. if you go based on your website and look strictly at confirmed cases, the 7 day avg in Texas may not actually going up. I might argue "probable" ≠ "maybe" but I don't know what criteria they use to determine those figures. I would also argue that in any case, if you think the amount of confirmed cases = the total amount of actual cases, you're playing yourself.
But to go back to the chart from your source.. the lowest dips seem to be rising, the highest peaks seem to be lowering. It seems if anything, cases overall are relatively flat or flattening.... which would mean I'm incorrect to say cases are going up, but it would also mean the OP is incorrect in saying they're going down.
I am hoping that (contrary to what I once believed), corona actually is somewhat seasonal and that the end of the winter, combined with steady vaccinations and other precautions, will get the new cases going back to legit, obvious declines.. and that more contagious vaccine-resistant strains don't simply replace the original corona..
but I guess we shall see.