It's more of a jury decision on whether he incited it, but when he said those things, he knew there were people willing to cause damage if he hinted at it. Telling his supporters that the government was against them by "rigging" the election would do nothing but cause hatred for the government. He told them to go to the capital and he knew they were already mad at the government. I think he knew what was going to happen.
Incitement doesn't mean saying, "Hey guys, let's go burn this building to the ground", incitement is hinting at doing something.