An appeal to authority can be a logical fallacy, however, there are expert opinions and it is equally illogical to ignore such expertise. The key is to evaluate sources and track their accuracy. So the conspiracy minded folks sometimes get one right, but they fire out so many guesses it seems like an accident.
It hasn't been chaos for me. That's the thing, you anti-every-thing people have latched onto changing theories. Gone by Easter...Summer...spring...rounding the bend....it'll be gone...just the flu...gone by election day. I bet for you guys it has been chaotic, because you keep jumping from theory to theory.
But the reason we mostly trust Fauci is this: Despite the "flip flop" you guys try to saddle him with for reporting new information and the fact that something we thought we knew was wrong, he has been right. When he has said something that he wasn't sure of, he admits it, when things change, he reports it. Science isn't religion: it isn't supposed to know the answers, its supposed to find them.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus
Fauci said the 100,000-to-200,000 death figure is a middle-of-the-road estimate, much lower than worse-case-scenario predictions.
He said preparing for 1 million to 2 million Americans to die from the coronavirus is "almost certainly off the chart," adding: "Now it's not impossible, but very, very unlikely."
However, Fauci cautioned people not to put too much emphasis on predictions, noting that "it's such a moving target that you could so easily be wrong and mislead people."
So models were in the range of a few hundred thousand to a few million.