I disagree with almost all of that. Yeah, Putin does stuff like this, and it looks crazy. But that doesn't mean he can't follow thru with it, assuming he can. I think the difference between our opinions is that I know Russia easily has the potential of doing these things, but as is the case with both of us, we just don't know if he can actually follow thru.
I know enough history to know that under estimating your opponent is often times just what they need to mess you up. Look at Hitler; right up until he invaded Poland he was utterly under estimated. Even then I don't think the French and British took him seriously and the end result of that was France being smashed by what many considered an inferior army.
Russia has VAST resources, and they don't go to the people. And don't let the half assed effort in Ukraine deceive you. If Putin really wanted to, he could pour in enough troops and equipment to end it. I don't pretend to get inside the mind of Putin, so I don't know why he does the crazy ass shit that he does, but one thing we do know is that he's a psychopath with the resources of a huge country, so anything is possible with him.