In 2016 I told people who said Trump had no chance that I have one word for them:
George W Bush.
If I had bet a dollar on him winning, I'd be a trillionaire now.
You forget one important point, Trump is double DeSantis on the polls. If it's him against Biden, Biden has to beat him. Sans the plague that cost Trump the election. Unless the economy does something miraculous in the next year and a half and people begin to actually like Biden as something other than the guy that isn't Trump in 2020, it ain't looking good. Sorry but yapping abot his way fab Infrastructure Bill that no one cares about ain't going get him anything.