Republicans underperformed in these midterms. By a long shot. Historically speaking, an unpopular President like Biden should face at least a 30-seat loss in the House, probably a lot more, and also lose the Senate. Obama got "shellacked" in 2010. So did Trump in 2018. Didn't happen to Biden in 2022. A lot of people are pointing to former President Trump as the GOP's problem.
But that's not the whole story. Would Republicans have done *even worse* in these 2022 midterms without Trump continuing to make his presence felt, holding rallies, and stirring up excitement?
It can't be denied that Trump on the ballot brings in a huge turnout of GOP voters, which gave Trump an unexpected win in 2016, and very nearly enough to win again in 2020 - claiming the largest vote total ever for a sitting President. How many voters who continue to pull the lever for R are doing so out of a sense of loyalty to Trump personally, rather than loyalty to the Republican Party? Probably a large chunk.
But the flip side is this: Trump being on the ballot and/or still unofficially in charge of the GOP *also* brings out a huge surge of people who wouldn't otherwise vote Democratic. Proof? I'm one of those people. I never voted Democrat, until Trump turned the GOP into what it is today. I did not vote for *either* major party in '16 - I didn't like either Trump or Clinton.
But as HRC (also a historically unpopular candidate) went away, and America soured on Trump, the anti-Trump-turnout effect became huge in '18 and '20 and again in '22.
For every Trump fan, there's an equally fervid Trump hater. That's how he is, how he's always been, and how he's always liked it.
Either way, it seems the Republican is in deep trouble. Damned if it ditches Trump, damned if it doesn't.
Didn't mean to go on for that long. Anyway. Thanks for attending my TED talk.