Counterarguments against DeSantis’s inevitability in 2024:
—Despite the crushing double-digit margin of victory here, DeSantis only ran about 2% ahead of Marco Rubio (a proxy for a generic Republican). Not long ago, Florida used to be a purple state, the swingiest of swing states. No longer. Florida is now solid red. DeSantis will, naturally, try to spin his victory as a triumph for conservatism on neutral ground, but that’s stretching the truth a bit.
—DeSantis is so far untested in a national election. Florida is a unique state, with large populations of wealthy retirees, as well as a unique Latino population (Cuban) that is much more conservative than other Hispanic groups. Thus, DeSantis’s bucking the national trend of disappointment for the GOP may be the result of local factors not really attributable to him.
—Trump still has a special knack that binds him to his base, and a unique ability to deflect away damaging stories that would be career-ending for other politicians (e.g. the Access Hollywood tape, the Jan. 6 riot, the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago). DeSantis hasn’t faced down the same storms, or faced quite this level of sustained scrutiny.
—DeSantis is no doubt a less charismatic politician than Trump, and shuns the press, a habit which his conservative media-hating fans don’t mind (and may even enjoy), but DeSantis’s tendency to stick to more favorable press environments may hurt him in a national campaign.
All that said: Victory is the best argument. Bottom-line, Republicans want to win in 2024. Trump’s handpicked candidates flopped in 2022, while DeSantis crushed his race walking away.
DeSantis has momentum. There is no better time to seize the GOP’s Iron Throne.
Will he?