A revolution in this century — taking bets

Three conditions for Revolution in this century:

1. Blue and Red America are pulling apart at a breakneck pace, both in policy and in national narrative.

—On the policy front, the demise of Roe v. Wade will create a vastly varied legal landscape for women across America. Some states have enshrined abortion as a constitutional right, others will prosecute it as murder.

—Will this issue resolve more like Prohibition (a moralistic experiment which was routinely flouted, and eventually ended via Amendment through a national consensus), or more like slavery (a collision of fundamentally incompatible worldviews, resulting in Civil War)?

—Donald Trump’s divisive presidency — and the violent, chaotic way in which it ended — has both illustrated this pulling apart and has acted as an accelerant. As a result of Trump’s loud and insistent claims of “voter fraud,” to a substantial minority of Americans, Donald Trump was the legitimately elected President in 2020 and Joe Biden is the usurper.

—The GOP having (less than half-heartedly) tried and failed to shake off Trump, Americans may well be asked to vote again for Donald Trump in 2024. Trump running again would in itself be disastrous. Win or lose, an enormous number of Americans will not only be dissatisfied, but will flat out not accept the result. The most plausible way for Trump to win would be to again lose the popular vote by millions while somehow squeaking out an EC win, which would be the 3rd time this has happened in our lifetimes.

2. Fundamental life conditions are worsening.

—Widening income inequality, inflation, upticks in crime, declines in life expectancy, the endless Covid pandemic, worsening drug addiction and gun violence crises, etc.

—Even as the rich get richer, there is no doubt that America is becoming a harsher, crueler place for most of us. Republican policies aren’t solving it, and Democratic policies aren’t solving it, either. All this punctures our self-mythologizing as the “greatest country on earth,” and as a place where our children are promised a better life than we had.

3. Climate change.

—Humanity is confronting a slow-moving catastrophe akin to a frog boiling itself alive. Will we stew to death in the juices of our own greenhouse gas addiction, or will we shake it off?

—Regardless of whether humans implement changes ourselves or Mother Nature does it for us, big shocks to our economy and lifestyle are around the corner.

Americans are too fat, lazy, and busy with social media and other modern accroutrements to do more than yap at each other online, albeit, at FULL CAPS strength.

American Rev/Civil War II lasted from 1/6/21 - 1/6/21. Then the Neckbeards went home to the trailor so ma can give em their Hot Pockets and 120z Buds.

American Rev/Civil War II pt B: The Truckers Stop DC literally got stuck in too much traffic for the dolts to handle because the one thing worse than them stopping traffic is cityfolk stopping it for them. No one even remembers what day it was, because as soon as that convoy found an exit, they got off that offramp and took the side streets back to their one lane 'highway' states and, you guessed it, more of ma's Hot Pockets and 120z Buds.

Only real actual hunger can spark a war, and despite cancelling the hs diploma requirement, the military can't even recruit enough because kids today are still too stupid as well as out of shape as well as too lazy to join.

A BIG reason for Welfare is to keep the poor bloated enough to not need to rebel. It works.

As for Global Climate Change whatev, there was supposed to be cruises doing the Artic coast and mangos growing in my backyard for almost a decade now. But so far winter hasn't been cancelled which sucks because I love picking fresh mangos off the tree when they're only slightly ripe-ish and thus still borderline sour, and if anyone wants to join me in a class action suit against Gore and Greta, I believe we have a strong case.

Don't get me wrong, come 2025, the USA ends in the name of Donny the king, but no shots will be fired, except Tweeterz.

I’m hopeful, but not at all certain, that the failure of Jan. 6 (a Beer Hall Putsch of sorts) has put the MAGA genie for political violence back in the bottle. The Committee has been a success, but a limited and very qualified success. It’s helped shine a light on what happened for folks who don’t pay much attention. It may spur the Justice Department to act. But it won’t do the most critical thing, which is to get Righties to abandon radicalism.

Trump’s own political career remains very much alive. We can’t close the chapter yet on what he’s capable of. It’s widely assumed he’ll run again in 2024. He may or may not try insurrectionism again, but he’ll try something.

And even if Trump himself keels over tomorrow from too much ketchup and hamberders, he’s refashioned the Republican Party into an anti-democratic, anti-Civil Rights, chauvinistic outfit. There are all sorts of MAGA folks at every level of government openly running on a platform of election denial, threatening to gum up the inner workings of democracy. And if Trump passes, the rabid RWNJ cult of personality he’s created will simply flit over to Ron DeSantis or whomever emerges as the Right’s next Anointed One.

Agreed that Trump and MAGAworld’s own disposition for sheer laziness are some reasons to think a successful Revolution, in the classic torches-and-pitchfork-carrying sense, is unlikely.

But a Revolution can simply mean “a change in the way we do things.” The Civil Rights Movement is sometimes called the Civil Rights Revolution. There wasn’t a Civil War — but there was widespread civil disobedience and police brutality, federal troops were sent south to enforce desegregation, and there were assassinations both of prominent Civil Rights leaders and even mainstream politicians (JFK, RFK). There’s no doubt that the America that emerged from all this was different than the America that existed before.

And so it may be again, once all our era’s political and legal turmoil shakes out. I’ve mainly been talking about MAGA, but there’s a brewing nullification crisis on the Left, as SCOTUS pushes its authority to enforce conservative policy on issues like gun control and the environment as far as it can go.

I’m not as sanguine as you about climate change — that, plus the escalating risks of world war in Europe and Asia are additional destabilizing factors. And these are only the things we know about — the “knowns.” When the crisis comes, it may take a form no one expects.

Gosh damn, I typed out a whole thing, was 50 - 75% through, and this thing decided to 'flip' to a useless meme from 7yrs ago and lost it. They really need to get rid of that utterly ridiculous feature.

"And if Trump passes, the rabid RWNJ cult of personality he’s created will simply flit over to Ron DeSantis or whomever emerges as the Right’s next Anointed One."

Except it's HIS cult of personality. DeSantis or whomever might ride that wave, he might roil the minions, but he's not Trump. Not just in the charm/puke dept, but also in terms of sanity, because how many are eager to to chance paying the consequences when the psycho parade drama starts getting exhausting/boring? Adrenalin starts to eat away at the body in the long run, sustaining it is impossible.

With any movement it's always the more rabid radical elements at the forefront, but in time it's the more tempered voices who supplant them and set the mood for the actual change. Trump is the bulldozer setting the extreme tone but he's also crowned - as the fall guy. They (the brains, the movers behind the scenes) are not so much following him as they are using him. And if it should come to it, it's his head on the platter while those utilizing him cut the strings tethering themselves to his fetid body and tell everyone they're here to fix the mess he wrought.

Who knows how things will go. Most likely most folks will do as they have, flame warring it on social media but not much else directly (others than the occasional act of violence).

On the other hand, the swing to the hard right isn't limited to here, as witnessed in Hungary, Italy, France, Poland... Even India has been swinging Hindu nationalist, and with minorities exceeding the population of most countries in number, that's a tad disconcerting, as thousands often die in their riots.

The most virulent of viruses eventually become more benign, or they'll exhaust their host supply and thus render themselves extinct. How long might that take or how much damage may be done before, who knows. But 2024 is crucial, could very well mark the end of the USA.

scuse my typos, rushing, gotta go the bed and I'm late enough with this reply as is...

Trump is an extremely loud blowhard, but end of the day he’s a symptom and not the cause of the GOP’s descent into madness.

Did you take note of DeSantis’s feud with Disney? Tempting to dismiss this fracas as typical social media provocateur frivolity, but I saw something deeper at work.

Disney is one of Florida’s Crown Jewels. Enormous employer and tourist draw. Despite Disney’s exalted status in Florida, DeSantis basically told them: “f**k you, if you show the slightest hint of interest in an LGBTQ-tolerant society, then we’ll strip you of legal privileges and bulldoze you down with unfounded accusations of pedophilia.”

Disney has to watch its brand, its bottom-line, and report to shareholders every quarter. All DeSantis has to do is win Florida votes once every 4 years. And all indications are he will, handily. Therefore, DeSantis and his Florida GOP lackeys can sustain a fight against Disney. Last I heard, Disney had been suitably punished by the Florida legislature and had gone quiet about its objections to the GOP agenda.

Not that I care about Disney or any other corporation in particular, but when the state coerces companies into effectuating a bigoted agenda, when both combine forces to stomp minorities, then that is Fascism 101.

This is a reversal of the typical GOP deal to corps — campaign contributions for tax cuts, basically. It’s instead a demand for absolute fealty to the GOP’s social agenda, under threat of legal punishment and brand ruination.

DeSantis plans to combine all of Trump’s combativeness + agility + competence. Will he dethrone the king? We’ll see. But the fact that DeSantis hasn’t led an event like Jan. 6 (yet, simply because he’s had no occasion to) is no reason to underestimate him or to think he would chart the GOP back to sanity. He won’t.

No shots will be fired, but there will be plenty of shrapnel as consumption of said Hot Pockets and beer inevitably leads to buttons popping from coast to coast, with at least one person losing an eye