the more people that are vaccinated the more the chances are that deaths are of those that are vaccinated. The raw numbers may tell a different story. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination
During a pandemic, you might see headlines like “Half of those who died from the virus were vaccinated”.
It would be wrong to draw any conclusions about whether the vaccines are protecting people from the virus based on this headline. The headline is not providing enough information to draw any conclusions.
Let’s think through an example to see this.
Imagine we live in a place with a population of 60 people.
Base rate fallacy explanation 02 1
Then we learn that 10 people died. And we learn that 50% of them were vaccinated.
Base rate fallacy
The newspaper may run the headline “Half of those who died from the virus were vaccinated”. But this headline does not tell us anything about whether the vaccine is protecting people or not.
To be able to say anything, we also need to know about those who did not die: how many people in this population were vaccinated? And how many were not vaccinated?
Base rate fallacy explanation 03
Now we have all the information we need and can calculate the death rates:
of 10 unvaccinated people, 5 died → the death rate among the unvaccinated is 50%
of 50 vaccinated people, 5 died → the death rate among the vaccinated is 10%
We therefore see that the death rate among the vaccinated is 5-times lower than among the unvaccinated.