It all clicked for me when I read an archconservative Russian oligarch quoted in a newspaper as cheering about the fact that the 3-day “blitzkrieg” on Kiev didn’t work. If the war had been won quickly and painlessly, the oligarch explained, then the war-related “transformations” that have taken place in Russian society over the past year could have never happened.
Most seem to think the war is merely about conquering territory and other traditional strategic objectives. They’re not thinking cynically enough.
The war sustains the key pillars of Putin’s increasingly despotic rule: nationalist fervor, painting NATO as an existential threat, and identifying/driving out/eliminating political dissidents. Same reasons the totalitarian Kim regime has never agreed to a peace deal with South Korea.
And if Korea is any example, then this state of perpetual warfare can be maintained for a long, long time.
Putin might accept Ukraine and the West’s complete and total capitulation as an alternative to this war of consolidation, but short of that, there’s no peace deal to be had.
That’s a depressing conclusion, but it’s also hopeful in another sense: regardless of Putin’s saber-rattling, nuclear weapons are off the table, since their use would destabilize Putin’s personal rule to an unacceptable degree, and he knows it.