POINT/COUNTERPOINT: Alternative future histories with Dmitry Medvedev.

That was one wild HOI4 session

Belgium: *nervous sweating*

Let's take 'em from the top!

"The collapse of the global economic system"

>>Fairly lazy prediction. Okay. But when? Why? How? And how large does an event have to be to constitute a "collapse?" The '08-'09 financial crisis was a big deal but I'm not sure it's fair to characterize as a "collapse." More recently, events like COVID and its aftermath, and the Ukraine War, have rocked the global economy's foundations but without precipitating a "collapse." World War 3 (whatever that might look like) would be a different story - but again, the world has already undergone two world wars in the past century without destroying what we might call the world economy. Nuclear apocalypse would do the trick, I assume, but in that case the proper headline would be "nuclear apocalypse" rather than "global economic system collapse."

"A war between France and a new German-led super-state."

>>Sure, Franco-Germanic history is full of wars, including WWI and WWII, but war between two NATO allies - both democracies as well as the E.U.'s two largest economies (inextricably integrated at this point) - is simply inconceivable. This 'prediction' really shows how outdated his thinking about current geopolitics is. I'm tempted to say this is actually the very most far-flung 'prediction' he's tossed out there, but next to all the other batty 'predictions,' who knows?

"He said the tech-billionaire and Twitter owner, Elon Musk, would be elected to the White House to govern a splintered U.S. state, following Texas’ secession and its joining Mexico."

>>Welp. Elon Musk is not a natural-born U.S. citizen and is therefore ineligible to be POTUS. Sad! Sure, the Constitution can be amended, but it's fiendishly difficult to do so, unlike in Russia where the rubber-stamp parliament can easily do things like removing constitutional obstacles to Putin being President-for-life. Medvedev clearly needs to take a class in comparative constitutional law.

>>As for Texas leaving the U.S.: Texas has been independent and indeed a part of Mexico in the past. There's precedent! Texas is large enough to certainly be a viable, if diminished, independent country. That said, the pesky U.S. Constitution gets in the way again: state secession is simply unconstitutional. (See: Civil War). So, Texas would have to shoot its way out. Could it do it? Perhaps in an America that's as hopelessly splintered as the U.S. was during Civil War times, but that's doubtful. Beyond that, anyone who thinks Texan Republicans (the group most loudly posturing in favor of Texan seccession) would ever leave the U.S. to join up with *Mexico* simply hasn't been paying attention to those same Republicans' rhetoric on the southern border.

"The security council deputy chair said the U.K. would rejoin the European Union (before forecasting its demise)"

>>It's totally within the realm of possibility that the U.K. one day rejoins the E.U. Public opinion polls say as much. Generational shifts (i.e. older Brexit supporters dying off, and liberal, internationally-minded Gen Z'ers joining the ranks of U.K. voters) will further increase the pressure to rejoin the E.U. It's also becoming more conceivable that either Scotland or Northern Ireland, or both, will exit the U.K. within this century or even within the next decade. As for the E.U.'s demise: It's also possible, depending on how many far-right populist governments are elected in Europe (especially the core members like France/Germany) and how you define "demise."

"Poland and Hungary would invade Ukraine."

>>Totally wishful/motivated thinking on his part. Poland has been one of the most consistently pro-Ukraine countries in the entire world. Even though both countries are currently led by right-wing governments (and Orban has been a perennial thorn in the E.U.'s/NATO's side on various issues), there's enough residual memory of USSR domination that cozying up to Russia by invading Ukraine is not in the cards. Even apart from all the goodwill both countries have shown toward Ukraine, if nothing else, in hard geopolitical terms, both countries view Ukraine as a human shield against Russian aggression.

Hungary, given Orban’s Miklos Horthy-like irredentism might try to invade Zakarpattia if Russia had already taken over most if Central Ukraine, but they’re nowhere close to that point yet.
Poland would sooner do the funni and invade Krolewiec before trying to retake Lwow

Yeah, it’s funny that Medvedev’s alternative futures don’t envision the far more plausible scenarios of Russia losing any or all of Donetsk/Luhansk/Mariupol/Crimea, or an anti-Putin palace coup, or less dramatically, Putin simply dying of cancer. Either of which would end the war in Ukraine because honestly no one in Russia but Putin and, now, his most extreme pro-war buddies from Wagner Group and Chechnya ever wanted it to begin with.

Almost like Medvedev is being paid to script rosy anti-West perspectives designed to appeal to uber-nationalist Russians and one in particular, his own boss.

These are funny just cause of how far out there they are...
●War between French and Germany? Sure they hate each other and Germany is always on the wrong side of every world war so Germany will turn on the rest of the EU eventually, but there's a 0% chance Germany will ever invade France again. France has been waiting 75 years for just such an invasion and France has nukes.
●Poland and Hungary invading Ukraine is Russian code for Poland and Hungary sending more troops and weapons to the Ukraine which might happen. But that's not an invasion. Poland and Hungary have a completely different take on Ukraine's war than we do. They NEED the Ukraine to remain a non Russian, non NATO buffer with Russia to keep them out of harm's way.
●Elon Musk taking over after a US civil war is a non starter. Half the country won't vote for him cause he's foreign, the other half love voting for foreigners, but are at least smart enough to make sure they're anchor babies. (See Kamala Harris: half jamaican, half Indian, raised in Canada, parent's still smart enough to make sure the birth took place in the US.)
●Crazy Russian predictions probably sound better on state controlled Russian TV than the sad truth. The Ukraine war will continue as long as Putin and Zelensky can profit off of it. No amount of suffering and destruction for either country can compete with Putin & Zelensky's swiss bank accounts.