We're at a pivot point for MAGA's future: explode or fizzle out. Who would win? Only time will tell.

I don't feel like these two concepts are necessarily mutually exclusive.

Good point.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles

There is a muddled middle-path, where violence becomes a sort of feature of the political landscape for awhile, but isn’t as calamitous as a “Civil War.” Definitely seems plausible.

I’m not suggesting the Republican Party is going to “evolve” — they seem very committed to combativeness, voter suppression, and Christian Nationalism — but it’s an open question how much raging at FOX News will actually translate into violence.

Remember, your average FOX News watcher is old enough to be pitched erectile dysfunction medication, reverse mortgages, and adult diapers. One of the interesting factoids about Jan. 6 is that the average rioter was in their 40s. Footsoldiers in rebellions are typically a lot younger.

I could be wrong, but I think the right-panel has the more plausible scenario here. I think Trump fizzles out, MAGA stands down, and history will mark Jan. 6 as the high-water moment for the MAGA movement's propensity for violence.

On Jan. 6, 2021, Trump was still a sitting President. His lies about the election reached a fever-pitch during this transition period. He still had Twitter, and he had many of his followers really thinking it was possible for him to be inaugurated to a second term. That's why the violence culminated on that day, specifically at the Capitol building - Trump and his followers understood that the Congressional election certification vote to be held that day carried significance. There was time to plan.

Aug. 8, by contrast, did not happen along any public timetable. Trump himself almost certainly knew it was coming, and is politically milking it after-the-fact, but his posture toward the "raid" has been essentially reactive. FOX News and most of the Republican Party are fully backing Trump, for now, but the steady drip-drip of criminal revelations that seem likely to come Trump's way in the months to come will provide a less suitable for a platform for outrage. Example: Trump's deposition today in the New York business fraud case, where he pled the Fifth and refused to answer any questions. Will legal developments like this ignite right-wing fury? It did not seem like it.

Instead, two kinds of events will serve as likely flash-points for MAGA violence:
1. Any civil/criminal trial for Trump (if one ever happens); and
2. Any future elections where Trump is a candidate.

Yet the feds will *also* be watching such events like a hawk. Further, many of the Jan. 6 terrorists have since been locked up, their organizations degraded, and their channels now being monitored a lot better. Lone wolf attacks can't be ruled out - but can a full-scale insurrection even be planned in America anymore? Has the trauma of Jan. 6 essentially vaccinated the country against an even worse disease?

It seems ever more likely that Trump will run again in 2024. But to stand for re-election in '24, Trump has to win the primaries first. The 2022 midterms will test whether extreme MAGA Republicans can win in competitive venues. If they flame out, then the GOP will likely find a shinier, more polished and professional standard-bearer like Ron DeSantis, and gradually ease Trump into retirement/emeritus status.

But as I said, only time will tell.

I'm solidly behind the first panel. You may be wrong, but I hope I am.