so in about 10 days from now, about 2 to 3% of the US population will be actively infected.

I’m at a ski resort so odds are good I’m being exposed. Whole family is vaccinated so we’ll see how it goes. 🤞

In San Francisco 1 in 14 people with no symptoms are spreading COVID 19
1 in 14 in San Francisco
So if you are in a room with 14 people anywhere you are almost guaranteed to have someone contagious in the room

Currently in San Francisco County 1 in 13 people has or has had Covid (but that's since 2020, so most of them are not currently contagious). About 1 in 1000 people in that county are being diagnosed with Covid per day, though, so it's serious . . . as it is in a bunch of other places right now.

The real thing to watch is how many people are getting sick compared to how much health care capacity a place has. Right now, NYC has about 1 person diagnosed with Covid per day for every 3 nurses. San Francisco has big teaching hospitals and a decent support net of other health care around it -- that's not equally true in a lot of rural counties that are facing higher rates of Covid per capita.

Yeah-

Or, taken another way, with about 4 million nurses in the US, in two weeks we will probably have multiple people with Coronavirus for every one nurse. Here's hoping most of those cases are MILD.