Yeah, Trump’s support has been low-mid 40s basically his entire term. The head-to-head Trump-Biden polls leading up to the election painted a similar picture.
And yet, in the end Trump ended up with about 47% of the 2020 Election vote.
Where the hell did those votes come from?
If one were inclined to solve mysteries in this election, one would start there I think.
The polling wasn’t wrong everywhere (notable example: Georgia), but it was wrong by enough in enough places that it’s a cause for concern. Trump won supposedly 50/50 states like Florida by quite a bit. He came way too close for comfort in states like Wisconsin.
One of the ideas for countering Trump’s voter fraud nonsense leading up to this election is that more accurate polling would improve public trust in election outcomes. There was evidence the 2018 midterm polls were extremely accurate, and a hope that whatever polling errors occurred in 2016 were fixed.
Sadly, that theory was kind of a miss this time.
Hopefully this is some sort of one-off Donald Trump effect because the polls consistently getting it wrong going forward in every presidential election to come is going to be infuriating and yet another thing that gives Righties an excuse to reject the media and reality itself.