too optimistic or nah

What’s your prediction for Election Night?

Let’s circle back on this in, oh, about 2 days

So not interested in what I may or may not do with kyliepillows that you have now discussed it for 2 comments in a row

And while the kyliepillow is not amused and just wants to be left out of these toxic American political debates

I’m happy to play along

Man, we were having such a substantive debate too

Immortal words

Anything else to add?

Kylie’s lawyers ought to sue the pants off of ImgFlip for the defamatory content that the site in its infinite wisdom agrees to host.

To our knowledge, no one’s ever been sued for a meme before, but memeing is still relatively new, this mode of communication is not going away any time soon, and there’s always a first case involving every new human innovation.

Perhaps the only thing stopping her team from taking legal action on such a slam-dunk case is the paradox that acting to censor speech only makes it more likely to go viral.

But I predict ImgFlip changes their mind before anything like that happens and agrees to take said content down once they realize disgusting KylieSUCKS crap hurts the site more than it helps it.

Look at you, intentionally misunderstanding something so you can make it sexual.

Lonely, are you?

uh huh

As promised

I can confirm that I cried salty liberal tears into my Kylie body pillow from roughly 9 to 11 p.m. after the early Florida debacle and the influx of heavy pro-Trump Election Day votes created an enormous red shift

And as it turns out in the end the polls were very wrong indeed

The MAGA movement is stronger than I thought!

I gotta hand it to you - you weren't THAT far off. Texas was too optimistic, but you were right about Arizona, and that took me by surprise. Florida's just unpredictable, you don't lose points for that. Pennsylvania and Ohio - well, you do what you can; it SHOULD have been easy to argue that Trump has been bad for them, but it's an election, wierd shit happens.

Georgia and NC, optimistic but in fairness, they're still counting, aren't they?

Far too kind though. I basically took the polls and added +1 or +2 to Biden to get this map.

Turns out the polls were more like off by -5 or -6 or more. Yikes.

I reeeeeally wanted an election that ground Trumpism into the dust and set the GOP back on course to being a sane, Mitt Romney-style party that would bring back bipartisanship and make our country actually governable again.

While Trump lost in a squeaker, he had massive turnout, picked up some demographics, and this election in so many ways basically validated everything he stands for.

A Republican candidate that promises the same oppression and disunity but with a slightly more professional demeanor (e.g.:Ted Cruz) could totally win against Biden in 2024 by making the basic appeal that Biden didn’t do anything (because McConnell and SCOTUS deliberately undermined and stonewalled any positive Democratic agenda, but no matter) and that a Republican President is the only way to get the country moving again.

Or maybe Trump himself returns in 2024. Only one term, constitutionally eligible, and they will love a good comeback story for Orange Man.

Pretty sure I’ve already seen several rightie memes calling for Trump 2024.

Depending on what challenges we face in the coming years, Americans may even look back on the Trump years with *nostalgia.* Yikes.

It's true, there's a million things to be worried about - even during the primaries, there were so many red flags that America still hasn't learned its go***mn lesson in all this.

But take the small victories. Politics is a marathon, not a sprint. If you don't take the celebrations where you find them, you burn out.

The polls weren't that inaccurate. I was following metapolls - which is why, I don't know if you noticed, I didn't dare express a solid prediction the last three or four weeks on imgflip. That's why I said 406 was way too high. But we only need to win by one point to tell Trump to pack his things as his services are no longer required.

What happens four years from now? We'll deal with it then.

Ideas are hard to defeat. Trumpism is basically recycled Reaganism, which in turn was really Nixonomics mixed with one part Machiavellianism and one part Caesarism. Hell, how many times do we have to say it? Some of this shit comes from remnants of the KKK, American Nazis, and Confederatism.

Yes, we need to bury these ideas in the ground and make sure they stay dead this time - but that's an ongoing struggle. That's a generational affair. As the late great Tony Benn once said, every generation finds that they have to have the same fights over and over again.

That's just how politics is.

We're winning. Take the victory.

Good advice.

I was always pretty politically engaged and historically aware since a youngster. I thought about history and politics as presenting discrete issues that have can be solved scientifically or at least debated honestly.

But diving deep into ImgFlip politics and having these “debates” (maybe debate is a too generous word) with “average” conservative internet strangers has opened my eyes to I guess the raw elemental element of politics.

When you boil it down:

Racism, sexism, xenophobia, homophobia, classism, and other kinds of bigotry are elemental and almost immovable forces that shape our thinking and destiny; only the most enlightened and self-aware can escape their clutches.

So, it doesn’t matter that Trump is a bumbling incompetent oaf which can be proven six ways to Sunday. Because the great mass of downtrodden white folks (and increasingly, some downtrodden minorities) feel viscerally that Trump is somehow “on the side” of people like them (despite being a silver spoon billionaire, but no matter), they will reflexively excuse an infinite number of insults and transgressions by him. In fact, the insults directed at others us alike from them may be exactly the point.

All the while denying that Trump is actually being racist or bigoted or simply mean-spirited and hateful toward others.

An author I read recently put it this way: Compassion has now become a *liberal value.* If you look out for someone other than yourself, you are fundamentally suspect.

Conservatives keep coming back to this concept of “virtue signaling” and that is why. They cannot bear the thought of someone being genuinely kind or caring or compassionate as it shines a light on their own lack of those traits.

They would much rather have a leader who rubber-stamps their own selfishness.

The way I see it, all a bully really wants is for bullying to be acceptable. Trump gives them that.

But you're right, on all of it.

Ngl I can't wait for the magahats to start malding

I'm afraid the copium reserves won't last

They deserve it.

It's official now. Pennsylvania has gone blue.

Then it's over. Without Pennsylvania, Republicans have nothing.

Which is exactly what they deserve.

Dude, that's the dankest meme I've seen in years.

It IS a bit too optimistic. Realistically, Trump has about 125 EC votes safe in the bag, so nobody should be predicting that he'd get any less than that - but you've pretty much called that ALL the other states will vote against him and much as that'd be nice to see, it's probably going to be a bit more of a mixed bag than that.

Arizona is interesting and I do predict the day in my lifetime when we'll see it and Texas go blue, but I'm skeptical that this is that year. I have doubts about Ohio, as polling is shaky there. Florida and Georgia are wildcards - you're braver than I am to make a prediction for them, although it's completely possible.

Biden's pretty much set to win IF the election runs fairly and smoothly, but that's a big shaky if. But I DON'T think it'll be 406 EC votes - Biden should consider himself to have done well to hit 350.

:-)

Oh yeah, I’m not saying every single swing state falls into Biden’s lap necessarily (except IA which I gave to Trump here), but it’s plausible based on the polling and with a little bit of luck.

And the reasons I have for optimism are these:

—Early turnout has been smashing records and although lines have been long, there have been few reported irregularities as yet (although expect massive fights over whether to count ballots arriving after Election Day, but only if those ballots will actually flip any result and I doubt they will). This makes me optimistic the solid and steady polling lead for Biden will actually be reflected in the final tally.

—2020 is a very different landscape than 2016. Trump isn’t a dark horse anymore. He has a record to defend and it’s an atrocious one particularly on Covid, the biggest issue of the year. He hasn’t moderated or matured whatsoever into the office of President. His diehard “burn it down” supporters love this, but most Americans don’t.

—Trump is polling worse with almost every demographic compared to 2016, and crucially, lagging with seniors who vote reliably. I think the only one he’s doing better with is straight white non-college men.

We’ll see!

:-)

If I may add to this: third parties have completely collapsed this year; they're not entering the equation at all. Four years ago, they were a much bigger complication to forecasting models. That's huge, and makes the polling accuracy much more tight than it was in 2016.

I’m a case in point: I voted Johnson—Weld in ‘16 because I wasn’t thrilled with either option and I naively assumed Trump wouldn’t govern as apocalyptically as he campaigned.

However, I cast my first ballot ever this year for a Democrat to be President and couldn’t have felt better about it. I did not research Jo Jorgensen whatsoever and couldn’t even tell you who the Green is.

I honestly have to keep reminding myself that it's not Al Jorgensen, who is a completely different person entirely.

Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker seem like decent enough people - they've done nothing wrong, just that this year was not for them and was never going to be. Having said that, I've been saying my whole adult life that the Greens' biggest problem is they've never actually landed anyone in the House of Bleeding Representatives, and they really could do with some rapport when it comes to federal legislative dealmaking. This still holds true.

"If I may add to this: third parties have completely collapsed this year; they're not entering the equation at all."
I haven't looked into or read that this was happening and so I'm not judging it but it suprises me to read.
I thought there would be likely Rep and Dem voters not happy at their choices and as some people conclude that their vote doesn't make a difference that this factor would increase a third party protest type voter/voting into a meaningful 1 to 2% directed away from the major party.

You thought that but you didn't find out to see if you thought right or wrong. You NEED to ask yourself "how do I know?" 'I thought' isn't good enough - not for me, and not for you; what are the ways you could verify what you thought? And what should you think when the reality surprises you? If I can get any message out from the last four years, it would be that.

And if you missed the reporting on this, then use this as an opportunity to ask yourself, how should you modify the way you gather information so that things like this DON'T slip past you. The press hasn't been hiding this. The third parties haven't been hiding this. Nobody has spun this deceptively - there is no way to spin this, the lack of engagement with third parties can ONLY mean that people are choosing the two main parties in a way that they usually don't. If you didn't know about it, YOU are the problem, not the sources.

Stop getting your information from garbage.

It to be honest hadn't and doesn't bother me what the polsters have to say the outcome will be and my thought was based upon human nature or at least my observation of what people do. We shall see if they are all correct on their predictions very soon.

Well that would make your thoughts based upon human nature and observations of what people do an unreliable way to gather information, then, wouldn't it?

You don't have to read polls to follow what's happening behind the scenes at third party headquarters. Third party donations, drops in their war chests, their inability to field staff, the interviews that staffers give - YOU DON'T HAVE TO READ POLLS FOR ANY OF THAT, DO YOU?

"Well that would make your thoughts based upon human nature and observations of what people do an unreliable way to gather information, then, wouldn't it?"
Sure it has that potential we are all to often unpredictable.
And you do have to read what's happening behind the scenes though to know they're not getting attention.
So we shall see what people do, like I said in the first comment I don't disregard what you're saying and you will know in a few days whether you have it spot on.

See, again, I don't think you've understood.

We'll know in a few days who'll win the election, sure, but we don't HAVE to wait a few days to know that the third parties are a bust this year. It's already known. They have given up. They haven't been campaigning. They COULDN'T campaign. They couldn't get the resources it would need.

Why do you need to wait a few days for THAT?

It's very simple, orange: just say "oh, I was mistaken on that! Now I know!" That's all you have to do.

The projection here is actually stunning haha

I'm hearing you, I can and will say 'now I know'.
However, I will only be mistaken once an outcome is known and I won't be bothered if their failure is the outcome.

Maybe you should look up the direction of New Voters, Blacks, Hispanics and your tone may well vary.

Good for you.

I didn’t even see that comment. Lol

Allow me to summarize:

Real Americans Support Trump said: Even if Biden wins, us dirty communist hippies won't get the luxury ride we got in 2009-2017 because they won't let us.

So. There you go. I guess we should rethink our lives; I never realised it was that serious, you know.

Even if the polls were as off as they were in 2016 Biden still wins with 335 electoral votes. So unless some major Supreme Court BS occurs (which probably will happen), Biden should have this in the bag.

Saying "that's not what projection means, Bobby" is a meaningless statement. And while I agree with antithesis' points, he does come across as arrogant. My point was that you're the pot calling the kettle black.

Except it literally is projection. You're attributing something that you don't like to someone else. You still haven't given me anything besides vague posturing, only further proving my point that you are indeed incredibly arrogant.

Agreed

Dream on the pair of you Hahaha.
If either of them exceed 300 I will be suprised to say the least.
Pollsters who had it correct last time don't even validate a Biden win at all but hey someones going to be wrong and not long to find out.