China has opened up about cases, yes we can be sure it's gone down, maybe not to that extent. I'd say it's between 7-100. They have listened to health experts and know what to do. Do you even wear a mask?
Oh, well, in that case...
Seriously, they have KILLED the health experts and doctors who went public with the Wuhan Flu.
The Chinese government doesn't like dissent. So, now, the "health experts" they "listen" to are hand picked by the Chinese government and the say what the Chinese government tells them to say.
Do you even think for yourself?
0 ups, 2y,
Factor in transparency, and that is a whole other story.
Excuse me? Look at other countries who listen to the health experts. They are through most of it. How is the numbers and proof another story? Do you want so many American citizens to die because our president is putting fourth safety orders but instead decided to joyride in a car while sick endangering members of the secret service?
1 up, 2y,
I'm questioning the authenticity of chinese reports. They have a tendency to cover things up/not make things available to the public (tiananmen square, winnie the pooh, youtube). They could as well be fudging the numbers.
That is a very true statement. With COVID, they have actually opened up about it. They did hide numbers earlier in the pandemic.
0 ups, 2y
"With COVID, they have actually opened up about it."
I don't know about that.
that being said, they have opened up already, so it can't be that bad.
1 up, 2y,
The original estimate of deaths inside the U.S. was 2.2 million people. So give Trump credit for his brilliance and compassion in managing to cut it down to the current numbers. Then acknowledge that even these deaths are wildly over-inflated by calling EVERYTHING COVID-19 caused whether it actually caused the death or was merely present when the fellow expired by getting hit by a bus. Finally know that about half of the deaths were caused by Dem Party governors putting infected people into retirement homes to infect other residents. So get your facts together rather than just gulp down leftist political propaganda by the gallon full.
2.2 million? That's a pretty crazy number, doesn't make any sense at all unless you are confusing it with the estimated number of cases, not deaths. We're now at about 7.5 million cases and 210,000 deaths. The CDC's estimate is between 219,000 and 232,000 deaths as of today. There's never been any official statistics estimating deaths that high, certainly not within the US.
But of course, I forgot: we can't trust the CDC, that communist, left wing, Trump-hating unit of the Department of Health and Human Services. OMG
So where'd you get that 2.2 million number? From Fox News? Because even your buddy Trump was saying in April the number would be between 50,00 and 60,000 deaths. By May 4th he'd upped his estimate to 100,000. Then in September: "It affects virtually nobody – it's an amazing thing."
Thus you demonstrate your deep ignorance on the subject; but when one's leftist sources are the propaganda outlets known as CNN and MSNBC it's expected that you only know what THEY tell you. Here is one link: https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19 If you had any integrity you would take it from there and find your own sources, but since they would run counter to your Trump-hatred . . . I expect you to dismiss the link BECAUSE it doesn't come from -- say -- The Daily KOS
Nice but pointless cherry-picking of data. "On March 16, a 20-page report from Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College London quickly gathered enormous attention by producing enormous death estimates. Dr. Ferguson had previously publicized almost equally sensational death estimates from mad cow disease, bird flu and swine flu."
This has been widely discredited by the US government, including the CDC. And I don't pay any attention to CNN or MSNBC, or the Daily KOS.
Yeah, and in your amazing two whole minutes of searching you might have bothered to actually *read* the article. But that was what? too much effort?
To clarify for those who don't read the articles they throw around at people, that estimate was from a model scenario of "what would happen if no action was taken to slow the spread of the disease." It's not an estimate of what anyone expected would actually happen, as even by March the CDC was taking action. It was an estimate of what could happen if *no* action were taken.
The article goes on (if you'd bother to read) that the CDC's estimate over the course of the year would be that the virus could infect between 160 to 214 million and kill between 200,000 and 1.7 million -- again, part of a model where no action was taken. We've already passed the lower threshold of 200,000 deaths, and we're about six months through the real ramp-up time of the pandemic and just heading into winter, with a second wave well underway. So by another six months' time we could see a lot more people die, a lot more than have died during the summer months. Especially with idiots deliberately going around without masks.
So now that I've spelled that out for you, do you still think you've "f**ked up my whole claim"?
Actually, you've just confirmed what I'd written to MagicMoMan a few minutes ago: that you flat-earthers think you're so clever and know how to do "research" when you manage to type something into Google and something comes back. Wow! We're really impressed. Clearly you are a Professional Researcher.
It serves the purpose of refuting your claim that there was no estimates that high. There most certainly were such predictions including the one from the UK. Regardless of how wrong they were in the early days these numbers were reported and you said they weren’t. They were and they were used to gin up fear by the media. You are Denouncing them now because they served their purpose to ramp up paranoia. Bet you weren’t denouncing them in March. Bet you were running around like chicken little telling everyone we are all gonna die stay in your house.
I'm guessing when people provide links to the CATO Institute they don't even know what it is or anything about its history (answer: it's a libertarian think tank founded in the 70s by one of the Koch brothers, a oil and petrochemicals man who happens to be the 11th-richest person in the world; back in 2012 he was the 6th richest).
This is like people quoting links to RT not realizing its actually Russia Today. The most basic consideration of their sources would tell them these things. That's why I think of them as flat-earthers: just getting in an airplane (i.e., just looking a bit wider) would tell them their world view makes no sense, or that it's being delivered to them as propaganda from people who don't have their interests remotely at heart. Anyone thinking Trump cares about them or is advocating for their needs is not looking very hard at the evidence, or at what the Republican Party has been doing for the last four years. Trump's been a great distraction from that agenda.
Vicious? No, over 200,000 people are dead. I know some who've died. Trump is vicious, and cruel.
Hateful? No, I don't hate Trump so much as I hate how he's actively doing what he can to destroy the America I know.
Lunatic? Sorry, a stupid thing to accuse me of. I'm not a lunatic, simply because you disagree with me. More than half the country think he's a clear and present danger to democracy. By most measures of what constitutes a psychopath, Trump qualifies. Perhaps previously we might have considered him only sociopathic, if he's willing to even cause the death of people around him he's amply demonstrated he simply doesn't care about anyone but himself.
If you look at the 20 common traits of a psychopath (https://metro.co.uk/2017/08/29/what-makes-a-psychopath-the-signs-to-look-out-for-6885871/) Trump exhibits almost all of them.
And sorry, it's only slanderous if the statement is false. In this case it's clearly true. We can see it right there in the image: Trump taking off the mask. No matter where the virus comes from (which at this point is pretty irrelevant unless you're looking for excuses), Trump knows damned well that he's infected and infectious, knows damned well that he's already infected his own family, friends, a whole bunch of his supporters from the Rose Garden event last week, White House staff, as well as many of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, which has put the nation at a high security risk.
No, only a psychopath would, knowing all that, deliberately continue to infect other people, and deliberately advocate that other people risk infecting other people by not wearing masks or attempting to avoid the virus. He's actively promoting the spread of the virus both by his actions and by his words, even amongst his own supporters. Even to you.
No, 200,000 people have not died of covid. If someone gets into a car accident, their chest smashed in, and tests positive, it's reported as a covid death. The numbers have been wildly inflated. You're being lied to. Grow up.
The survival rate is around 9,999 in 10,000. This is not an apocalyptic event. You're being duped.
0 ups, 2y
There's an easier way to count this. Count how many people died in the past three years and average it, and then count how many people died in the first 9 months of 2020. Multiply the second number by 4/3, to see what would be the "estimated" death count of 2020. Then subtract it from the first number, to see how many more/less people died in 2020.
That being said, because of quaratine, there's probably going to be less flu/pnuemonia deaths and less vehicular deaths as well.
Maybe you should brush up on interpretation of your Maffs
Case fatality rate of the ongoing
The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the ratio between confirmed deaths and confirmed cases. During an outbreak of a pandemic the CFR is a poor measure of the mortality risk of the disease. We explain this
in detail at OurWorldInData.org/Coronavirus
Estimated case fatality rate (CFR)
Venkatesh and Memish (2004)
Munster et al. (2020)
Munster et al. (2020)
Seasonal flu (US) 0.1 to 0.2%
40% in the 2013-16 outbreak
Shultz et al. (2016)
I was trained as an engineer at university. I can assure you my mathematical and statistical skills are just fine. I really don't understand the point you're making. Is it that there are diseases that are both less and more infectious than Covid-19? Yes, that's true. But you're also quoting fatality rates without including infection rates. MERS is quite fatal but hard to catch. Ebola is extremely deadly but it's so obvious when someone has it they don't tend to get on planes. They sometimes die within a few days, with blood exploding from their orifices.
One of the things about Covid-19 which makes it quite different than SARS or other coronaviruses is that a substantial number of people remain asymptomatic but infectious. So while it doesn't kill so many people as SARS or MERS it spreads much more rapidly (due to asymptomatic transmission and a long incubation period of two weeks or more) and therefore infects a lot more people. In the early 2000s over 8,000 people from 29 different countries and territories were infected by SARS, and less than 1000 people died. We're waaaay beyond those numbers now.
So yeah, there are more deadly diseases but at this point we have a global pandemic with over 35 million cases worldwide, and we're heading into winter. Even with a mortality rate of 1-3% that's going to be a lot of people dying. So we can quibble over a few percentage points, but to what effect? If you don't think there's any danger yeah, just go out and party like it's 1999. But if you do know you're likely responsible for spreading it to others. That's all I'd ever ask of anyone: take responsibility for your actions because what you do affects other people, including your own family and friends.
The point is you are using the case fatality rate that is flawed during an actual outbreak due to the fact you don’t really have a good estimate of total cases you have assumptions as is explained in the article if you read it. Case fatality rate varies constantly and by region and is not a true indicator of survivability.
Your esteemed credentials mean shit because you are just interpreting data and wrongly I might add. All
Your assumptions are based on the CFR. The purpose of justifying your TDS by spitting out a CFR means nothing. The CFR could actually be half that number because potentially millions of cases are undiagnosed and if true cause of death is skewed by over reporting to Collect government COVID Subsides to hospitals then it is likely much lower than that.
The other Diseases referenced are to give perspective to the CFR. Covid is a real disease and for some it can be deadly but we reject your fear mongering, hide in your house, shutdown the country, sky is falling bullshit. Your naivety in believing that without Trump 200 thousand people would be saved is absurd and idiotic. Especially considering you encourage gathering together in huge crowds shrieking are the top of your lungs spewing your germs like a fire hose in the name of rioting. You andolve Democratic leadership that denied it was an issue and encouraged people to go out and mingle, go to Chinatown, sent thousands to their deaths by foisting infected people on the most vulnerable populations in New York and New Jersey. For someone who touts his education you have a poor grasp on reality.
I guess a “university education” in engineering doesn’t include critical thinking, Unbiased statistical reasoning or applied logic. Go figure. I bet it did include some communist indoctrination and SJW causes.
I have no idea why you think any of this is relevant. The CDC's statistics are what they are. I've never claimed Trump is responsible for *all* of the 200,000 deaths, but he and his government have (in comparison with most other countries) mismanaged it horribly. Being the 11th highest fatality rate in the world is hardly something to be proud of, especially considering the resources of the US government and medical establishment. Yeah, better than Brazil and Spain and Peru, but *most* of the rest of the world has handled it better than the US under Trump. Germany has less than a fifth of the fatality rate per 100,000 than the US, most of the rest of the world less than half. So we can quibble over the stats but the point is that the Trump adminstration has mismanaged this, and continues to.
As for the rest of your arguments I'll let them stand. Half of them are nonsense or have nothing to do with me. I'm not hiding in my house or telling anyone the sky is falling, unless you think 7.5 million infected and 200,000 dead is no big deal. Do you? Have you lost anyone yet? Do you even care?
I'm pointing out that Trump just told people that the virus is no problem, after he was directly or indirectly responsible for infected a large number of people in the White House, despite (theoretically) having very high security. If he'd encouraged people to take precautions and wear a mask we'd have many fewer infections and deaths. That's not sky is falling bullshit, that's just common sense and common courtesy: you don't willingly infect people (even your own family and friends) with a deadly virus. Or do you?
Well you admit that wearing a mask is nonsensical then? Since you won’t wear one while being in the same house with other people who may be infected by you? The people you purportedly love don’t merit a mask, but strangers outside do? Do you breathe when you sleep? Bet sometimes in your sleep you cough and spew your death projectiles all around the room. Why isn’t that a concern oh great university educated sage of nothing.
You will ignore my arguments as you ignore all other realities. You posted a number to calculate simple Case fatality rate as proof to support your claim it’s all trumps fault. I find that to be flawed and disagree Because you ignore the encouraged super spreading events called protests that turned into riots and Poor decisions made by Democratic Governors that added greatly to the numbers of dead, and posted why I disagree.
That upsets you because you think claiming that you are college educated means you are better than those you speak down to, without knowing who you speak with. That makes you not only wrong, but also a sanctimonious little prick.
You're right, we don't know each other. So you have no idea what my qualifications are any more than I do yours. I only know what you've written, which is just personal attacks littered with untruths and insults. You state I think I'm better than you because I have a university education. We all have our skills and talents. I know as well as anyone that a Ph.D. doesn't indicate a clear thinker, it's just the mark of a highly-trained specialist. But your behavior so far marks you as someone whose inpulse is just to punch someone in the face rather than try to reason with them. I can punch too. Big deal.
Apart from saying what you've written is to me nonsensical you should note I haven't actually insulted you. Or at least I've not intended to make it personal.
I've made it as clear as I can that I and my family do what we can to take precautions and we wear masks when in public. It's not any more complicated than that.
So what are you doing? Are you making any attempt to protect your friends and family from being infected? Yes or no? Better or worse than what I'm trying to do? What exactly are you disagreeing with?
More than seven million people in the US have been infected with a deadly virus, and several hundred thousand have died. The fatality rate of the US is by any measure higher than most western countries, which is inexcusable. Trump is now advocating that people shouldn't even be wary of being infected, which is pathological considering people in the US are dying, lots of them, about a 9/11's worth every three days. That's what this discussion is about, to me. We can quibble about the details but we have a president who tore off his mask in front of the cameras after coming back from being treated for Covid-19 and is now openly advocating we should have no fear of a deadly virus, that nobody should be wearing masks. And his White House now contains 35 active cases.
That's why I said the rest of what you wrote was irrelevant. Not because I think I'm smarter than you. Because I think he's psychotic. No sane person who cared about the people around him would do that. Even his own wife is infected, probably because of him, because he won't take precautions.
Do you wear a mask in your house? How about when you sleep? Assuming you don’t sleep alone. How do you protect your family by not doing that which you demand of strangers. Or is the deadly virus able to tell you are sleeping? Nonsense right? Your TDS is nonsense.
The point is no country has escaped deaths no matter who their leader is. Ignoring the super spreader riots and democratic leadership failures and transitioning blame to trump for all is disingenuous as are you. There is plenty of blame to go around.
I have no idea why you think wearing a mask in my own house or when I sleep would either occur to me or be of any benefit to anyone else. Given you feel this is some kind of legitimate argument I'm going to assume the rest of your arguments are equally nonsensical. The virus doesn't wander around and come into my house while I'm sleeping.
That said, I take every precaution not to get infected, I wear a mask in public, I avoid crowds (used to take public transport, now I'm driving), and I wash my hands a lot. In short, I do what I can. So does my partner, though she unfortunately doesn't drive so has to take public transport, but washes her hands and takes precautions.
You seem to think it's all or nothing, that either you are forced to never leave your house or you just go out and party. If people take precautions and have a government that does what it can do, it *lessens* the spread of the virus and *lessens* the number of people who get infected and therefore the number of people who die. The US is currently over double the world average for deaths per 100,000 people. It is failing miserably at actually handling the virus. And the president has provided almost no leadership on this, and as this whole "meme" points out, is actually advocating its spread.
I'm not sure what part of that you don't grok, but all I'm asking of other people and the government is that they stop *willingly* infecting other people and take precautions, and take responsibility for their own safety and the safety of both their friends and family, and their community.
I know, that sounds entirely batshit crazy, nonsense, doesn't it?