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Basics (now with correct facts)

Basics (now with correct facts) | Most test positive. Most feel nothing. 94% survive. The virus is real. The hysteria is fake. Think of the sick. | image tagged in virus,facts | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
167 views 8 upvotes Made by DoctorStrangelove 5 years ago in politics
8 Comments
2 ups, 5y,
1 reply
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99.53% survive. The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
Is about 0.47% All deaths divided by all infected (including those with mild symptoms who do not go to doctor and those who are asymptomatic). Colorado recently revised how Covid-19 are defined, which reduced total dead by about 20%. If all states did this total deaths due to virus would drop, lowering IFR. Chart is from Spain. US
0 ups, 5y,
3 replies
Got some problems with the chart, your wording, and your numbers a bit there.

Some stats for later if I need them for calculations...

Total infected
1,936,057

Total dead
17,248

Cases Recorded
217, 508

....

If the fatality rate is .754%, that would mean 99.26% survive. Not too far off from your number but I just don't know where you pulled that from. I presume from some worldwide calculation? Or is it an error?

Again, not sure where .47% comes from... Perhaps from Colorado?

I'm glad the infant fatality is super low, that is nice. Yes, if Colorado redefines what constitutes a Covid-19 death then it will certainly effect the total dead but the deaths will not necessarily drop. There will simply be fewer deaths counted as legitimate cases. It's a minor wording error but I'm feeling nitpicky. I understand there are people inflating the numbers and attempting to deflate it. I don't see much a point in doing either.

But, barring that, I have to wonder where Spain determined total infections if confirmed cases is a separate category. Total infections is an estimate, we don't know how many are infected and can also affect the fatality rate. It would be best to calculate with the cases than the number infected.

If you divide case by deaths, then the fatality rate is 7.93%.

If you can explain how they're totaling number of infected with cases, then I would find that most illuminating.
1 up, 5y
I believe Spain performed a large testing for antibodies. Then extrapolated those results to the entire population. Top chart, 3rd column shows what %tested positive for AntiBody. 4th column is extrapolation to determine how many would test positive if everyone was tested.
1 up, 5y,
1 reply
If only the people who go to doctor or hospital get counted as a case, the IFR goes up. Many people who are infected have no or mild symptoms and seek no treatment. When these people are identified through antibody testing and included in cases, the overall fatality rate goes down.

To illustrate:
Hypothetically, if 1000 tests were performed posthumously on only patients who died while on ventilators, the IFR would be 100%. If people were randomly tested until 1000 were found to test positive and they were all tracked the result would not be 100%. 500 have no symptoms, 300 have mild, 200 very sick go to doctor/hospital. Of these 200 very sick people, 150 are admitted with 100 ending up in ICU with 8 dying. The IFR is 0.8%
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
So, Spain is acting on extrapolated data, and not actual data. That is always dubious, unfortunately.

Yes, it is true, people who go to the doctor get counted as cases but there is a constant claim that Covid-19 and the flu are one in the same. They are not.

The flu normally kills 12,000 to 79,000 in the US alone. Covid-19 has killed an approaching 100,000 people. And we're barely past a fourth of the year. Scientists were saying that the virus may dissipate in warmer weather but new information has emerged that due to the fact that the virus is mainly spread by droplets through mouth and nasal passages to other people, it is far more likely the virus will continue to spread through the summer and double come the fall.

Since we do not know how many people are infected, we cannot count them as part of the calculation. They are an x-factor. Those who've been tested, and tested positive, are continuously showing a higher than average fatality rate. True, if more people are infected and the parameters of Covid-19 are rigidly defined, then the virus is not as deadly as purported.

But ask yourself this, are you willing to take that chance? I appreciate skepticism. Especially from the perspective that you, yourself, could be wrong. That is how you prevent confirmation bias.
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
Sign me up for a coronavirus party!
I have an older sister who traveled to Europe late February who probably contracted virus. She had mild symptoms only taking a few days off work. Never tested tho.
0 ups, 5y
Jim Jones | CORNAVIRUS PARTY? SOUNDS LIKE MY KIND OF SHINDIG | image tagged in jim jones | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
0 ups, 5y
USA: Data taken from news reports and AZ govt posting. These are subsets of US population where the entire subset was tested whether person had symptoms or not. 45% of Diamond Princess cruise ship positive cases were asymptomatic. Data is obviously from time of publication.

Known groups where ALL people were tested, with or without symptoms-

Arizona nursing home workers.
368 cases, 1 death
IFR 0.27%

Diamond princess cruise ship.
634 confirmed cases, 6 deaths
IFR 0.95

Meat plant workers.
10,000 confirmed cases, 45 deaths
IFR 0.45%

11,002 total cases including asymptomatic , 52 deaths
IFR 0.47%

Add in USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier
All 4500 crew tested
1156 cases including asymptomatic , 1 death

New total
12,158 total cases, 53 deaths
IFR 0.45%
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Most test positive. Most feel nothing. 94% survive. The virus is real. The hysteria is fake. Think of the sick.