may 1

Keep America First Gnome Approves this MEME!!

https://i.imgflip.com/3zyoe4.jpg

so people still hate him

This chart tells a different story. Trump’s approval ratings are still pretty static and well underwater, as they’ve been for virtually his entire presidency, except the very beginning.

In a contest between one poll vs. an aggregation of polls, I’ll take the aggregation.

Gallup must be wrong then vs the fly by night co you posted.

but yes polls are often wrong 98.9% Hillary will win

Nate Silver, Founder of 538, predicted Trump had an approximately 33% chance of victory on Election Night 2016

So Trump’s victory was well within the range of probability of his model and he was a lot more right than a lot of folks

compared to gallup, yes..

And that’s because he aggregated polls. He didn’t just look at one.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/amp/

and even he was wrong.. 2/3?? closer but wrong

There would have been no basis except blind faith to flatly predict that Trump was going to win the 2016 election. That went against the available data.

Framing predictions in terms of probabilities is correct. It's what betting markets do, and it's also what pollsters do.

The bettings markets currently have Biden as the underdog with a Trump win as the less risky bet.

Pretty sure 538 guy only ever correctly predicted 2012. How hard was that to do?