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What second wave?

What second wave? | CAN'T HAVE A WORSE SECOND WAVE IN THE FALL; IF WE KEEP THIS ONE GOING UNTIL THEN | image tagged in memes,roll safe think about it,coronavirus,reopen,risk,infection | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
5,702 views 1 upvote Made by mapnmuzikman 5 years ago in politics
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15 Comments
1 up, 5y,
2 replies
You mean 0.1% death rate and falling? Yeah, this is just the yearly cold season. The 'second wave' is just going to be next seasons cold.
0 ups, 5y
abt. .25% of the country's population has already died from it, and we have over a million active cases.
literally can't have a .1% death rate if we have have surpassed it 2.5 times already.
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
statistically inaccurate
0 ups, 5y,
2 replies
https://www.covidus.com/coronavirus/usa/
Total US deaths 84916
Total US population 329,671,200
Death percentage of population ‭2.5757785332780054793988677203226e-4‬
or in English .000258% (rounded up).
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
and then you move the decimal over 2 places to show the percent. So we are both wrong (my decimal should have been over 1 more place to the left).
In six weeks, the virus has killed roughly .027% of the country (so 6 weeks already got us a quarter of the way to your ".1%". "and falling" is a very uncertain claim to make when we have over a million active cases right now. we continue to add 20k+ cases/day. .001*20,000=20. You're mixing your numbers. The death rate on closed cases in the U.S. is at around 22%. Even if that falls to something nice and low like, idk, 6%, if we add 20k cases/day for the next 7.5 months until the end of the calendar year, you're still talking 278k deaths from those added cases alone, then hoping for that wild-guess low death rate on the currently-known cases, that's 64k deaths, added to the 89k deaths to date... You get... 431k deaths.

If .1% dies, that's 329,000 deaths. (basically, if the whole country were divided up into cities of 329k, we would have 1,000 of them). Let's hope that we are both wrong, because it looks like we are headed for something in the hundreds of thousands. If we keep losing 1k people/day, that's 232k before the end of the year. 232k + 89k gets us awfully close to that .1%.

source: worldometers.info
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
No. We are no where near 22% death rate. The highest estimates put us at 1%. But it's over estimated because they are reporting anyone with covid-19 as dying from it. Some hospitals are reporting 100% covid-19 deaths.
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
The 22% death rate is on known closed cases. Worldometers.info
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
World o meter is measuring the whole world and counting places with almost no testing. Averaging the whole world into one number is going to wildly inaccurate.
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
Motivated reasoning alert
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
0 ups, 5y,
1 reply
It's not about left or right. It's math and logic.
Motivated reasoning means that you think according to what you want to believe. It doesn't mean "I'm motivated to think about stuff".
0 ups, 5y
That applies to everyone. Everyone has bias. The trick is to debate using facts and logic and being open to being proved wrong, which I am.
Unfortunately no one can show any evidence to the contrary from a reliable source that can be checked for accuracy
0 ups, 5y,
2 replies
The "e-4" means 2.57... to the power of -10 times 4 or move the decimal left 4 places.
0 ups, 5y
.1%, expressed as a decimal, is .001. multiply that by 329 million and you get 329,000. .1% means 1 in every thousand. If we divided the country up into 1000 cities with equal populations. There would 329k in each of them.
0 ups, 5y
We will be at one-third of the way to .1% deaths in about 10 days... So, before June. This leaves 7 whole months to reach that .1℅. considering we got here in under 2 months, I sure hope that the llama treatment works.
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CAN'T HAVE A WORSE SECOND WAVE IN THE FALL; IF WE KEEP THIS ONE GOING UNTIL THEN