I have narrowed down the origin of the video the slavic region(Czech republic, Slovakia, Belarus, Ukraine) based on the moss on the tree, the building architecture, and the length of the shadow. The winter solstice lines up with northern hemisphere because all of the trees are missing their leaves. I will say, if it is AI generated there are a lot of really good details that stayed consistent. The moss grows on the side of the tree that never receives sun. With the video being blurry it is hard to confirm that is what is on her side, but would support the origin theory.
if this is real it relies more on the "the box is empty" magicians trick rather than painting the tree.Mirrors redirect the line of sight to behind the object. That would also explain why as soon as she touched it the focus was lost and since she is not actually touching the tree, she is touching a mirror in front of the tree her hand would not be cast in shadow. She is never shown through the tree leaving me to suspect that is a limitation of the trick.
I believe the cammer picked up or moved one of the mirrors (or drawing) when they walked back towards the origin to break the illusion. There appear to be frames removed from the video to prevent the illusion being broken early. The perceived core of the tree also elongates leading me to believe more it is a reflection.
In the end I'd say you are right, it is more than likely not AI. I just had to put more thought into understanding why the physics didn't work as expected. I imagine the frame that is missing would have showed a reflection of her hand before she touched the tree. Her hand does have a strange pink aura in front of the tree still.