Technically the USA could have defeated Japan, they just estimated that an invasion of the Japanese home islands would cause immense casualties, as many Japanese were not ready to surrender, and Japanese doctrine was that the most cowardly thing a soldier could do was to surrender, and the bravest thing they could do was die for the emperor. Thus both Japanese troops and civilians would have fought to the death in a desperate attempt to hold the islands, causing immense loss of life to both the us army and marines, and the Japanese public. Thus, the atomic bombings were an attempt by the US to save lives, and, despite their fame, the war could have been won without them.
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