China hasn’t announced weapons shipments to Russia. They’re considering it, according to U.S. intel, but haven’t pulled the trigger.
There are reasons to be hopeful they won’t. China’s posture on this war is more conflicted than many realize. Yes, they have no love for the U.S., but China is still pursuing a charm offensive with many European countries that are staunch Ukrainian allies. China has a lot more than Russia to lose from being shunned and potentially cut off from a large chunk of world trade.
Don’t forget China’s (and India’s) warnings to Russia to stand down on the use of nuclear weapons as well. Even countries that are otherwise longtime economic friends of Russia have no interest in seeing the world blown to smithereens over a conflict they don’t really care about.
Let’s check some others while we’re at it:
—Belarus, Russia’s only ally in Europe, has allowed its territory to be used as a staging ground for Russian troops, but has so far resisted major pressure to affirmatively join the war on Russia’s side.
—Kazakhstan and other post-Soviet states in Central Asia have conveyed their disgust with Putin, at the war in Ukraine. Russia’s security partnership with the nations of that region is in shambles.
—Iran has sold drones to Russia but isn’t giving no-strings-attached military aid of the kind that Ukraine receives from many.
—North Korea is the only country that has shipped military supplies (artillery shells) to Russia without strings attached, but even North Korea balked at Russia’s request to send laborers to the front lines to rebuild the occupied territories. Even a madman like Kim Jong-Un doesn’t want his people turned to cannon fodder.
Bottom line, Russia has few real friends around the world and the fat lady hasn’t sung yet on this being a WWIII yet. We won’t reach that point unless North Korea starts shelling South Korea again, or China crosses the Taiwan Straits.
And how do we stop that? A rock-solid show of international support for Ukraine makes either of those nightmare scenarios less likely.
You don’t want to “defend democracy” in Ukraine. What about Taiwan? South Korea? Japan? Are we going to roll over for every dictator every time they mutter about their nukes? Or are you only in favor of selectively rolling over for Putin? Why?
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/02/23/chinas-calculation-on-supplying-russia-with-weapons-00084128