Not your strongest argument bro. Not at all.
Let’s look at the last 3 decades of Russian aggression. Russia targeted:
—1. Chechnya. Not in NATO — obviously, because it’s in Russia. It’s a holdover province of the Russian empire that found itself on the wrong side of the border after the USSR’s dissolution. But that’s another story. Anyway, being in Russia obviously meant no one was there to defend it when the Kremlin’s tanks and artillery came rolling in.
—2. Georgia, attacked by Russia in 2008 and partially annexed. Also not in NATO! Though had been interested in joining.
—3. Ukraine, first attacked by Russia in 2014 and once again in earnest in 2022. Guess which major transatlantic alliance it was not a part of? But like Georgia, Ukraine was increasingly orienting itself toward the E.U. and NATO at the time of both invasions.
We can deduce that being in the process of “NATO consideration,” whatever that means, is the very worst place to be if you’re a Russian neighbor.
If you’re a Russian-aligned state like Belarus, then you’re safe from an invasion, so long as you forsake any hope of Westernizing and democratizing, and you don’t mind hosting tens of thousands of your Slavic brothers-in-arms at any point with minimal or no warning from the Kremlin.
But if you’re *in* NATO, then you’re golden. Precisely zero NATO states have ever been invaded by the USSR or Russia since the alliance’s founding in 1949. Good record!
Other subtle benefits of being in NATO: (1) Immunity from a U.S. invasion (the U.S. has also invaded precisely zero NATO countries since the alliance was established — since the U.S. is known as a “warmongering state” and all, that’s a nice benefit); (2) Immunity from war with *other* NATO states.* Centuries of Anglo-French, and Franco-Germanic warring, not to mention Western European imperial bullying of smaller European countries? Poof! Gone!
(*That said, query whether Greece and Turkey — NATO members both — might one day come to blows over Cyprus at some point. But being NATO members has kept their historical tensions from boiling over into outright war. Again, a W for NATO.)
Conclusion: Being in NATO is and remains a fantastic deal, if you can actually get in. Just ask Sweden and Finland. Russia can cope and mald about it, or offer its neighbors a better deal.