Agree. I'm not seeing a sea-change of opinion. But we're at a point where just a few tens of thousands of votes swinging one way or the other in an ever-shortening list of hotly contested states (like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia) can determine the country's future.
A small slice of independents were mad at Trump back in 2020, now the guard has changed and they're mad at Biden - though Trump has remained in the headlines, suing people, getting sued, running rallies, and hinting at '24, so residual anger against him can't be discounted.
So my prediction is a Republican win, but a close one, just like the 2020, the 2018, and the 2016 elections were all close. Neither Party will gain enough of a lasting advantage to feel comfortable for long, or suffer enough of a lasting setback to fundamentally change up their coalition or approach. The results will once again offer room for many competing narratives, and no real clarity.
This also seems to be a "talking-past-each-other" election.
--Republicans are talking about crime, the economy, immigration, and gay/trans kids.
--Democrats are talking about abortion, healthcare, Social Security/Medicare, and democracy.
These are all timeless themes that have come up in every election for as long as I can remember, and in the end both Parties come back to the same watering holes. Pick the issue that most concerns any given voter, and you'll probably also be able to guess which way they're voting. That said, from elections past, I do remember candidates actually debating substantive policies with each other ("what *is* your approach to immigration, anyway?"), and I don't see much of that happening anymore.
No one's really talking about Ukraine - let alone Taiwan - even though these are some of the biggest live foreign policy issues right now.