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About 6 months in, neither side has delivered a knockout punch. But in the long run, Ukraine has a path to victory.

About 6 months in, neither side has delivered a knockout punch. But in the long run, Ukraine has a path to victory. | Ukraine is geographically much smaller than Russia, but Ukraine's population is 44 million vs. Russia's 146 million - not as big a difference as a map would make it seem. Further, Ukrainians are fighting for their national existence, are highly motivated, and have mobilized their entire manpower. Meanwhile, Russia has burned through many of its most elite military units and is reluctant to turn to conscription as it would be a sign that the war is going poorly. Ukraine receives a steady supply of increasingly advanced weaponry from the West, while international sanctions against Russia are hurting their resupply. After 6 months, Russia has been rolled back from Kiev, occupies only about 20% of Ukraine, and further progress has become glacial. A rational Russia would sue for peace and some territory and aim to undo sanctions. Of course, since Putin is a madman, we're unlikely to see that anytime soon. A grinding war lies ahead, but it's difficult to see how Putin achieves his maximal war aims. | image tagged in ukraine friend russia adversary crimea lunch,ukraine,ukrainian lives matter,russia,russophobia,ukraine war | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
Ukraine (friend) Russia (adversary) Crimea (lunch) memeCaption this Meme
20 Comments
Captain_Scar M
2 ups, 2y,
2 replies
"since Putin is a madman"
yeah I'm sure that attitude sheds so much clarity on everything
Slobama
2 ups, 2y,
1 reply
Sloth well actually | image tagged in sloth well actually | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
"Madman" is shorthand for "Putin sits at the apex of a rigid, hierarchal system that tolerates no signs of weakness from the top, and has invested far too much personal political capital into this war, so he won't back down almost no matter what happens on the ground."

I suppose a certifiable madman would have flung nukes by now. Hopefully he never does that. Regardless, what Putin perceives to be in his own short-term political interests is indeed madness for his country, and for the world.

I've heard it opined that this war won't end while Putin is alive. That seems a fair assessment. Unless more fuel gets poured on the fire in the form of Russian mass conscription or WMDs, perhaps this war is settling toward a frozen, lower-level conflict similar to what has already existed in the Donbas region since 2014.

Is that state of affairs sustainable? Well, evidently it is - as it's already proven "sustainable" for 8 years. The Israel-Palestine conflict has been simmering for decades. Many post-colonial conflicts in Africa - same.
Captain_Scar M
2 ups, 2y,
1 reply
all of that for a drop of blood | image tagged in all of that for a drop of blood | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
was that all really necessary to say you should've worded it differently?
Slobama
2 ups, 2y,
1 reply
We can't fully assess Putin's political career until it's over. For now, he's no Hitler, he's no Stalin, but he's already one of Europe's bloodiest leaders since those times.

If he never reaches Hitler/Stalin levels of bloody, I think we can chalk that up to the Russian army's logistical issues and incompetence, not his own lack of ambition.
Captain_Scar M
1 up, 2y,
1 reply
prisoners are a far greater strain on logistics than dead bodies

just sayin
Slobama
0 ups, 2y
He's right ya know | image tagged in he's right ya know | made w/ Imgflip meme maker
I recently read Ukrainian forces are seeking to wound, not kill, Russians for that reason, when they can — medical care is expensive.

Survivors of war also live to tell the tale of its horrors. It’s a smart strategy.
[deleted]
0 ups, 2y,
1 reply
Apparently I recall a certain mad man growing up

Ayotolla Komeini
Captain_Scar M
1 up, 2y,
1 reply
what?
[deleted]
0 ups, 2y
Iranian supreme leader Ayatolla Komeini
Look up 1977 - 1983
WaltDisneyTrashSandwich M
2 ups, 2y,
1 reply
“Their strategy worked”
WaltDisneyTrashSandwich M
2 ups, 2y,
1 reply
this is hilarious, Russian occupied territory is probably what, less than a 10th of Ukrainian territory? Russia is pathetic and failing. they have not reached their goal, they have certainly lost.
WaltDisneyTrashSandwich M
2 ups, 2y,
1 reply
It’s funny how you flee to that when you can’t think of a rebuttal. That won’t work here, buddy boy.
WaltDisneyTrashSandwich M
1 up, 2y,
1 reply
What have you said? Nothing of worth.
WaltDisneyTrashSandwich M
1 up, 2y
to you? yes.
WaltDisneyTrashSandwich M
1 up, 2y
I’m sure that wouldn’t be healthy.
Ukraine (friend) Russia (adversary) Crimea (lunch) memeCaption this Meme
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IMAGE DESCRIPTION:
Ukraine is geographically much smaller than Russia, but Ukraine's population is 44 million vs. Russia's 146 million - not as big a difference as a map would make it seem. Further, Ukrainians are fighting for their national existence, are highly motivated, and have mobilized their entire manpower. Meanwhile, Russia has burned through many of its most elite military units and is reluctant to turn to conscription as it would be a sign that the war is going poorly. Ukraine receives a steady supply of increasingly advanced weaponry from the West, while international sanctions against Russia are hurting their resupply. After 6 months, Russia has been rolled back from Kiev, occupies only about 20% of Ukraine, and further progress has become glacial. A rational Russia would sue for peace and some territory and aim to undo sanctions. Of course, since Putin is a madman, we're unlikely to see that anytime soon. A grinding war lies ahead, but it's difficult to see how Putin achieves his maximal war aims.