6/10 spin effort, good enough to confuse those unfamiliar with Russia’s post-Cold War trajectory or the facts of the past decade.
To understand this conflict you have to take a step back from domestic U.S. politics. As I stated above and you no doubt glossed over, the U.S. has *no authority* to defend Ukraine from Russia. Not under Obama, not under Trump, not under Biden. No amount of rage-tweeting from a Presidential potty is going to deter Putin. Putin only recognizes and respects hard power, period.
That said, Putin doesn’t threaten every non-NATO country on his border, either. He doesn’t menace Kazakhstan. He doesn’t hound North Korea. He’s quite chummy with China.
What makes Ukraine special, then? Why did Putin start aggressively harassing Ukraine beginning in about 2014? Is it because Obama was President at the time?
No. It was the pro-democracy, pro-E.U. Maidan Square protests — which resulted in the collapse of a pro-Putin puppet government in Ukraine, and ushered in real democracy in Ukraine — that’s what touched off Putin’s masterplan of dismembering Ukraine.
Putin has vivid memories of the Berlin Wall falling from when he was a young K.G.B. agent stationed in East Germany. He detests popular, pro-democracy uprisings. He sees them as directly responsible for the collapse of the USSR, which he has called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”
Putin has decided he can’t tolerate a successful, independent, European-oriented democracy full of Russian-speakers on his border. That model directly threatens his corrupt kleptocracy, as well as his megalomaniacal and imperialist claims to represent ethnic Russians everywhere they are found in Europe and around the globe.
So: Putin’s goal in Ukraine isn’t conquest or glory or territorial expansion or self-enrichment or even the security of ethnic Russians, many of whom would no doubt die on both sides of a Russia-Ukraine war. His goal in Ukraine now is quite simply, destruction.
Putin appears willing to pay a very high price simply to see Ukraine’s democratic experiment fail, both for its own sake and to set a bloody example for other “unruly” neighboring countries with thoughts of taking the democratic, E.U. and/or NATO path.
How high? We’ll see.