yeah, the Midwest could be complicated. I'm from Michigan, so I have my biases. It's not so clear cut. It's generally rural enough though that I'd say it should go to the conservative side, the only issues are a few big cities.
I think the Rockies are a pretty good dividing line in the west, and the east I think that definitely New York/New Jersey and everything north would go to the libs, and probably Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware going as well.
Alaska I'd definitely say goes to the conservative side. Hawaii is a little more complicated because it's useful as a military base in the Pacific, and it probably isn't the best idea for the conservative side to have Alaska being our only presence on the Pacific.