Star Wars No

So, follow this math to its conclusion: There are approximately 44 million Americans in the 30 - 39 age bracket. 1.4% of 1 million is 14,000. 1.4% of 44 million is 616,000 dead, just in that age bracket, if Covid is allowed to run through the population unchecked.

There are a few more than 19 million American children under 5. .1% of them is 19,000 dead children (again, if Covid is unchecked). Anyone who is yelling "Noooo!" at the idea of 19,000 dead American children is probably the one thinking straight.

Ummm, this is counting those who contracted COVID.

Well, if it goes unchecked, that will be almost everyone. But so far in the US we are a little over 42 million confirmed cases (certainly an undercount, since not every person who got infected got a test, especially early on when tests were harder to get). In 2020, the median age of the US population was 38, so let's use that number for our calculation of risk.

1.4% of 42 million people would be 588,000 deaths (about 100,000 shy of the current confirmed case count). NOT a small number: that's a little more than the entire population of Baltimore, or about 8 Hiroshimas (not to make light of that horror).

And 42 million is not the end of the story: we're still getting almost150,000 new confirmed cases a day, of whom about 2,100 will die if that 1.4% death rate is accurate.

My conclusion: small percentages are deathly serious if the base number is big enough.

For the elderly and ones with pre-existing condition. The average age of a COVID death is 79years old and the SURVIVAL rate is over 98%. Don't by all the hype and fear.

If the survival rate is over 98%, that dovetails with the mortality rate of 1.4% that I got for median age Americans (38 years old). 100% - 98% = 2%, yes? Those numbers AREN'T the elderly, and don't reflect pre-existing conditions more than any other slice of America. And remember the potential for 19,000 dead preschoolers I mentioned in the post before that.