If he doesn't change quick (which I doubt he will), he will lose

If he wins, it means the rabid Left is still cheating (surprise!!) and will give even more evidence to wake up the remaining sheeple. It may be the trigger event for the big reveal and Trump's return.

But if he loses, then the elections will be more balanced between the big and small states for which party they vote for

If Newsom loses, it's a good thing. But Larry Elder will be in the same position Trump was for 4 years, surrounded with swamp creatures. Still, it would be a good start.

So it's a Victory either way?

The Left has painted themselves into an unviable corner on any number of issues.
Do they give you the impression they are winning or that they are desperate?

Desperate

They can keep it. The state is beyond redemption.