Well,
1. It's illegal under the Constitution for a President to serve more than 2 terms. That said, the illegality of a thing has never been much of a constraint on Trump, nor on his Party for enabling him. In the unlikely event he were to run again in 2024 and win, and try to run AGAIN in 2028, I guess it would be down to the states to keep him off the ballot... but... what if he "won" a third term on a write-in campaign? (These scenarios become ever more speculative and remote, but from all the craziness we've seen lately with our democracy eroding, it has to now fall within the realm of possibility)
2. The guy is in his mid-70s. I know he has relatives who lived to 90+... but... just looking at him and his habits/failure to exercise/poor diet (his doctor has to sneakily mix in cauliflower into his mashed potatoes to make sure he gets his veggies), I'm doubtful he makes it that long.
3. The GOP seems firmly within Trump's control for the moment, but 4 years is a long time. Trump came out of nowhere to win in '16. Maybe someone else pulls the same feat in '24? Maybe an even crazier character who out-Trumps Trump?