This is a fascinating question. I made this meme tonight for PoliticsTOO opining that we are in a civil war. The thought crossed my mind that it could be seen as a TOS violation but I posted anyway.
As of a few weeks ago we were in a Civil War that I described as “cold,” and as of Jan. 6, now it is hot.
Truth be told we won’t know whether it’s a real civil war or just a riot until events that have yet to unfold do so. Whether Biden is inaugurated without a hitch or whether his inauguration is attacked by Proud Boys or heaven forbid he is assassinated. Whether the Trumpista insurrection fizzles or gains steam.
Look back at the history of the Civil War, the way Lincoln’s inauguration was protested and disrupted and you’ll find uncomfortable parallels. The Southern states gradually seceded during the transition period even though live shots weren’t fired on Fort Sumter until April 1961.
Civil Wars often aren’t formally declared, sometimes they just... happen.
That said, this may not be a civil war. Just an especially rough transition of power.
The big, big difference that I am counting on that makes it NOT a Civil War this time? Institutional Republicans don’t want one. There is nothing to gain from it, even less so is there an actionable plan. Republicans will be mealy mouthed about it and probably reject a second impeachment because they want to retain Trump’s voters, but they won’t secede. The “lifestyle” being threatened by a Biden presidency, whatever it is, isn’t tantamount to a bedrock economic issue for the Southern states like slavery.
Also, can you imagine a real civil war during a pandemic? No one wants that.
Trumpista insurrectionists will be hunted down by the FBI like many of the Jan. 6 rioters have been already.