Five reasons Trump won’t win in 2020
1. Everybody has already made up their mind about Trump — and his numbers stink
Right now, Trump’s net approval rating is minus 8.5 percentage points in the RealClear Politics polling average. Fivethirtyeight.com says it’s minus 10, as 53% disapprove, 43% approve and 4% won’t say. That spread was first “achieved” in March 2017. Trump hasn’t narrowed it below nine since, Fivethirtyeight says.
In other words, no one’s changing their minds about Trump. About 40% of us like his act, if only to “own the libs.” Everyone else? Nope.
2. His state numbers are just as bad
Oh, but the Electoral College! says Twitter, where confident young people educate me about their hero’s resilience in Midwestern battlegrounds where he snatched victory from popular-vote defeat in 2016. Thanks for that. Really.
Like, in Michigan, where Morning Consult puts Trump’s net approval at minus 12? Trump’s Michigan numbers haven’t been green in 26 months. Morning Consult says he’s doing two points worse than in October, before Republicans lost two House seats there and the governorship.
Trump’s polling in Wisconsin? He’s minus 13. In Iowa, minus 12, and his party lost two of its three House seats.
In Pennsylvania, birthplace of former Vice President and possible 2020 rival Joe Biden, Trump is minus 7, a point worse than last fall. Democrats won the generic House vote in Pennsylvania by 10 points.
Just on those four, Trump’s 306 2016 electoral votes fall to 254 (270 needed to win) and it’s over. But as many as 215 Trump electoral votes could be in play, based on state-by-state polls.
Yes, early polling isn’t great on head-to-head matchups. But the relationship between late-first-term presidential approval and re-election prospects is pretty close — if it changes, an intervening recession, war or economic boom explains why. This brings us to….