The "Jefferson State" movement is a lot like the American revolution; a rural reaction to being disenfranchised by the urban population. But I don't see that as a likely source of initial bloodshed, as long as the "Progressives" don't push too hard. (I live in Northern CA, and know many of the Jefferson State folks.) But the legislation seeking to remove the rural counties of OR and CA from the dominating cities cannot succeed because it would wreck the federal balance of power, unless another urbanized state was created.
No, most of the "new civil war" talk I hear is "anti-fa" and "Resistance" talk, aimed at destroying their imaginary enemies.
:^(