Very true, knowing what will appeal to everybody and to just a few are key if you want to make the front page. Sometimes I hit and others I miss, but I always make stuff that is fun for me and don't worry about it. I would never have lasted doing this as long as I have if all I cared about were points and making front page. It has to be fun or you will get bored here sooner than later.
Sure you can make front page with reposts all the time I've seen people do it. That can't be very fun though, not like creating something you thought of and having it do good. The people that do that don't usually last long, it needs to be a labor of love or it starts to feel like labor you don't get paid for ;)