The 2024 election numbers paint a picture of apparent political realignment — one that undermines a once long-held belief that higher turnout helps the Democratic Party. Disengaged voters, Pew’s analysis shows, are not Democrat-curious idealists held back by voter ID laws, but instead people who largely either drifted right or stayed home in indifference.
In the 2024 race, voter participation hit 64% — the second-highest rate since 1960 — yet 26% of eligible adults still haven’t cast a ballot in any of the last three national contests, a cohort that skews younger and less likely to have college degrees.
Furthermore, Trump carried 40% of Asian voters, 48% of Hispanics and 15% of black voters, expanding his multi-ethnic coalition, Pew’s study shows. Among men under 50, a group that voted for Biden by 10 percentage points in 2020.
Among registered Democrats who did stay home, barely seven in ten said they would have backed Harris anyway, — a loyalty gap Trump did not suffer with Republicans.
