How tf is poland low risk

they have extremely high defense spending, and it's basically a second switzerland that hates Russians.
it wouldn't be worth it to make a conflict with them.

you forget about nato
if russia attacks basically any european state then all the others would join the war

this map is plain wrong
france would be nuked. same with poland. i cant really see why south america would be bombed. japan is definitely higher risk than australia. central asia might get roped in and nuked as well. the nordics would be nuked. if this is ww3 they are talking about.

Poland and France are Most Likely not what Russians are Looking for.
South America has Brazil, a BRICS nation (allied with both russia and china) and Venezuela (shit political freedom and allied with russia)
I agree with your third point
I can't see much of a reason for any central asian nation to be nuked other than pakistan (MAYBE afghanistan)
The f**k does anyone need from the nordics?

its not about what each country needs or has.
its about proving a point. showing that you can kill millions. destroy a country's rezsolve to fight just as the war begins. it wouldnt matter if the nordics had no natural resources, they would stll be nuked.
there are ~50 countries in europe. if it takes 3 nuclear warheads to completely destroy a modern city, then the capital city of every european nation could be flattened for the cost of 150 nukes. russia has over 5000 of them.
russia has the largest nuclear arsenal - why not cripple the enemy's morale by taking out paris? why not kill millions of people who would rebel to your rule?
in the event of a nuclear war… the northern hemisphere will not survive.

got it.
there is still one thing I disagree on, that Russia would actually last that long.
not only does the USA-Allied nations have more nukes combined than those allied with Russia, Russia's population density is extremely focused on Moscow and other nearby cities.

sure, their PEOPLE may not survive that long. but nukes are typically stored away from population centres, so their ability to launch would not be inhibited
plus, russia has more nukes than the usa's ~3000, the uk's ~200 and france's ~200.

alright then