The return of the Soviet Union (USSR) in its original form is considered highly unlikely by experts, with most estimates placing the probability at near zero in the near-to-medium term. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed nostalgia for the Soviet past and described its collapse as a "geopolitical catastrophe," re-establishing the exact 15-republic union is seen as impossible due to deep structural, political, and economic changes over the last 30 years.
Here is a detailed breakdown of the factors influencing this assessment based on current, post-2022 analysis:
Why the Return is Unlikely
Irreversible Sovereignty: Former Soviet republics, particularly the Baltic States and Ukraine, have established firm national identities and are strongly opposed to rejoining a Russian-led union.
Lack of Communist Ideology: The ideological foundation of the USSR (communism) is largely gone. While some Russians hold nostalgic views, there is no mass movement to bring back a centrally planned economy.
Weakened Russian Power: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has severely depleted Russia's military and economic strength, making it difficult for Moscow to project the influence needed to force a reunification.
Neighboring Opposition: Most neighboring countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, have turned toward the West and NATO for protection, resisting Russian attempts to bring them back into a sphere of influence.
Factors Leading to "Neo-Soviet" Tendencies
Although a direct return is unlikely, experts note a trend toward "neo-Sovietism" or a new "Russian Empire" under Putin:
Territorial Aggression: Putin’s actions in Ukraine are viewed as an attempt to restore a "Greater Russia" rather than the formal USSR.
Internal Control: Russia has adopted "totalitarian communist practices," such as tight control over civil society, media, and the military, often seen as a revival of old Soviet tactics.
Nostalgia: While the younger generation is not interested, a significant portion of the older generation in Russia and some post-Soviet states feels nostalgia for the perceived stability of the USSR.
A Different Type of "Union"
If any form of union returns, it would likely be a "vastly different and much more pragmatic union," operating more as a collection of anti-American, Russia-friendly countries, rather than a restored communist state. Some suggest this could be a "voluntary" union, perhaps closer to a, economic bloc.
