Roughly 11 hours before the closely watched award was given to Venezuelan resistance leader Maria Corina Machado this morning, the odds of her victory surged from near-zero to over 70% on Polymarket.
The market on this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner has accumulated over $21.4 million in trading volume since opening in July.
For nearly all of that time, the odds of Machado receiving the coveted prize have hovered around a 1% or 2% likelihood.
Then, Thursday night, shortly before 1:00 am Norway time, the Venezualan’s odds of winning surged to over 43%.
By 2:00 am, they hit 73%.
