Ok so let's just assume that there are 50 active MSMG users. There's about a 60% chance of one MSMG user leaving every month 60%*60%=36% of two MSMG users leaving, and so on. So if we want MSMG dead by January 2026, we would have to make 8 users leave in one month, which has a probability of 1.7%. So yeah, there's a 1.7% chance that MSMG is dead by January 2026.