“Today, Trump’s closest primary competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally. No other contender is at or above 10%. This makes the margin between Trump and the rest of the field north of 30 points on average.
“A poll out last week from Marquette University Law School had Biden and Trump tied percentage-wise (with a statistically insignificant few more respondents choosing Trump). The Marquette poll is one of a number of surveys showing Trump either tied or ahead of Biden.
“The ABC News/Washington Post poll has published three surveys of the matchup between the two, and Trump has come out ahead – albeit within the margin of error – every time.
“Other pollsters have shown Biden only narrowly ahead.
“To put that in perspective, Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNN’s standards for publication for the entirety of the 2020 campaign.
“Biden was up by high single digits in the late summer of 2019.
“Biden is up by maybe a point in the average of all 2024 polls today.”
“Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.
“No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent.
