Hmm, there's definitely interesting arguments for all three. As far as #1 is concerned, I think considering the US outspends China by a factor of nearly 8 to 1, it's not likely to be foreign craft as I would assume the US would have something even more powerful to counter Russia or China. Not to mention hackers can cause so much disruption to a country's infrastructure, someone could potentially take down a regime with the click of a button, which is something not even advanced fighter craft can do. #2 I think is the most likely as well, you hear a lot in magazines like Popular Science about the stuff they have in development like force shields and energy weapons, surely craft like what are being described can't be too out of the question, especially since there's been descriptions of these sort of ships since as far back as WWII. I highly doubt the Manhattan Project was the only top secret project the US was working on, I'm sure the US had a whole lot of other really crazy ideas in development, Nazi Germany as well. It's definitely something I would explore further if I ever got the proper clearance. As for #3, that's an interesting question, why they don't either come down to visit or stay hidden. My guess why they don't come down if that's the case is because they want to make sure they can safely do it without spreading pathogens between our species and theirs. In War of The Worlds, it was germs that took down the Martians, human weapons were effectively useless. Disease has killed more of us than war ever has, I'm sure both humans and aliens don't want that to happen on either side. I think the popping out sometimes instead of staying hidden if they are indeed aliens is sort of a hint to us "Hey, we exist, you should get your act together". If they meant us any actual harm, I think they would have done something about it a long time ago.