Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton.
While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect.
Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80 minutes prior, and winds supporting 80 mph (70 knots) at the surface. Since that time, satellite images continue to show further organization, and the initial wind speed is set to 85 mph (75 knots).
Milton is moving just south of due east at about 5 mph (6 knots). This equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours, following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern coast of Yucatán.
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